New Zealand’s climate is ‘entering uncharted territory’, according to the latest Our Atmosphere and Climate report.
It says our share of world emissions might be small, but it’s way out of proportion to our population.
Evidence is building for climate change’s effects on nature, health, the economy, and Māori relationships with the environment, the report says, and our choices around agriculture and energy – our biggest sources of emissions – can shape our future.
A companion report with climate case studies is also available.
The SMC asked experts to comment.
Dr Roland Stenger, Principal Scientist, Environmental Research at Lincoln Agritech Ltd, comments:
“It will come as inconvenient news to some of us that we account for only 0.06% of the world’s population, but for 0.17% of global emissions. It has been estimated that peak warming by 5°C would result if every human across the world emitted at our level.
“While there are efforts underway to reduce the frequency of state of the environment reports produced under the Environmental Reporting Act, ‘Our Atmosphere and Climate 2026’ demonstrates the great value a well-researched and well-written report can have. It provides an easily accessible overview of climate change impacts on the natural environment, human health, economy and infrastructure, and outlines the choices that will shape our climate future.
“Rather than getting bogged down in the ‘uncertainty debate’, it clearly identifies different levels of confidence in predictions, the spatial variation of impacts, and the fact that different communities will be affected differently.
“It has been stated that this report is meant ‘to provide a trusted foundation for public discussion and decision-making’ – I would like to recommend it as essential reading for every member of our next government.”
Conflict of interest statement: “No conflicts of interest.”
Dr Suzie Greenhalgh, Group Principal Researcher – Catalysing Change, Bioeconomy Science Institute, comments:
“The latest Our Atmosphere and Climate report provides mostly sobering realisations with some hopeful trends.
“The continued loss of wetlands is one area New Zealand could purposefully address. Wetlands not only impact on our greenhouse gas emissions but are important for dealing with the effects of climate change, like flooding. On top of climate benefits, wetlands are important for biodiversity and helping to purify contaminated water. Rewetting drained wetlands is another avenue for reducing the scale of our emissions.
“Another sobering realisation is that much of exotic forest estate is ready for harvest, meaning the ability to sequester or offset our emissions is going to be reduced until these forests are replanted. Road transport is obviously still an area where we need to do a lot of work, and the gradual electrification of the passenger vehicle fleet is still to make a real difference to our emissions. However, it was great to see waste management is making a real difference to the emissions coming from that sector.
“It is clear climatic patterns are changing and that extreme events are becoming the new ‘norm’. There is still much to do and that we can do to proactively take action to reduce the impacts of the more extreme events as well as the more subtle changes affecting things like growing conditions and pest and disease incidence.”
Conflict of interest statement: “Suzie has no conflict of interest to declare.”
Professor Simon Hales, environmental epidemiologist, University of Otago Wellington, comments:
“The 2026 MfE report on the state of our atmosphere and climate includes an updated summary of recent research on greenhouse gas emissions, climate trends and studies of the health impacts of climate in Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ).
“The authors emphasize, correctly, that NZ greenhouse emissions matter on a global scale. If the global population emitted the equivalent carbon dioxide emissions per person of NZ, the increase in global temperature would reach a catastrophic 5 degrees Celsius — well above the critical threshold of 1.5 degrees.
“The report has an excellent summary of recent empirical research linking climate and health, including international studies that include NZ data. In general, the impacts of climate extremes are shown to affect our health in similar ways to other countries. From the perspective of climate justice, those who are most affected by climate disruption have contributed the least to greenhouse emissions, both within and between countries. NZ has a particular responsibility to Pacific Island countries, that are in the forefront of climate impacts.
“One important omission in the report concerns health “co-benefits”: policies which reduce emissions at the same time as improving human health. These include policies to reduce reliance on expensive, polluting fossil fuels, and shifts towards renewable energy sources, active transportation modes and plant-based diets.“
Conflict of interest statement: “No conflict to declare.”
James Renwick, Professor of Climate Science & Physical Geography, Victoria University of Wellington-Te Herenga Waka, comments:
“It’s good to see the 2026 edition of this useful series of reports. The tone is clear from the outset: The opening Message to Readers makes it clear that the climate is changing rapidly, and Chapter 1 is titled “The climate we have known is entering uncharted territory”. It does a nice job of describing both the background trends and changes in episodic extremes. Things are changing rapidly, especially for land and ocean temperatures, and the country is set to see a future of more droughts, heatwaves and fires, along with bigger floods when they happen.
“Changes to date are putting more pressure on ecosystems and on us. It will be hard to cope with continuing change, as flora and fauna change, glaciers recede and melt, and our collective health and livelihoods are damaged. The report covers impacts on the economy, on agriculture, on transport, on food security and more. It is a clear-eyed and comprehensive view of what is happening with the changing climate, great work. I hope the government is paying attention and is responding appropriately, though I have seen no sign of that over the last 2-3 years.”
Conflict of interest statement: “None at present, but I have had past involvement with the report series, and have received funding from MBIE and related organisations over three decades.”
Professor Troy Baisden, Motu Affiliate and Adjunct Professor at Te Herenga Waka Victoria University of Wellington, comments:
“This three-yearly Environmental Reporting Update on Atmosphere and Climate once again extends beyond what has changed to provide an outlook of future climate change. The report provides brief and useful snippets and narratives of where we are and what to expect: climate has changed and is changing; future impacts are given consideration based on probable scenarios with inclusion of more extreme scenarios when these are particularly concerning.
“An important caveat associated with this Environmental Reporting series is that no new work is commissioned, so the report provides a summary of recent science and StatsNZ’s indicators. Unfortunately with the abrupt end of National Science Challenges, research contributing to this report has tailed off, so we have less complete and integrated studies than we did previously, and also less than communities and industries can access in other nations. The situation may worsen with large further cuts to environmental and primary sector science announced this year.
“A concerning example of decreasing research impacting conclusions reported is the suggestion that the economic productivity of the dairy industry is expected to diminish with climate change. This finding was driven by an otherwise valuable report that used models lacking sensitivity to the combined interactions of climate, increasing carbon dioxide and high nitrogen fertility. More complete models predict small improvements in production as well as regional shifts, but haven’t been run for the purpose in the last three years.
“Projecting the report’s wide array of issues and examples into the future, we can worry the reporting series will eventually contain fewer examples like Amberley, where the Council supported good planning to begin a coordinated move of residences ahead of risks associated with rising seas. Good coordination and planning begins with good information, and many examples in this report show how much that could matter for our future.”
Conflict of interest statement: “Have reviewed and advised other MfE Reports and Projects; have led and contributed to projects that model the combined impacts of climate, carbon dioxide and fertility on production.”
Dr Luke Harrington, Senior Lecturer in Climate Change, The University of Waikato, and a Science Advisor on the report, comments:
“We know a lot more about how climate change in Aotearoa than even three years ago. More extreme heat, more flooding, more droughts: the strength of our evidence base is growing all the time.
“We are prone to both worsening droughts and flood events with rising global temperatures, not just one or the other. Our highly variable climate complicates our ability to disentangle these two competing forces, but we now have a really good idea of the range of possible worst-case-scenario outcomes we might see in a warmer world.
“We also know a lot more about the risks from extreme heat than a few years ago, including how drying soils can accelerate the rate of warming on our hottest days of the year, a process we thought was limited to regions like the Mediterranean rather than New Zealand, even as recently as the last IPCC report.
“All these worsening hazards have the potential to produce significant impacts, whether for Māori, the economy, our health system, or the most vulnerable members of our communities.
“We also have some long-standing knowledge gaps which still need addressing, particularly around back-to-back and multi-region extreme events. How long does it take for communities to recover following a significant flooding event? How can we more systematically document this recovery? And what happens if the next event comes along before this recovery is complete?
“We only need to look to the Marlborough Sounds, the Tasman district, or the top of the East Cape to find examples of regions struggling to cope under these compounding and accumulating impacts. And yet, our understanding of how quickly other regions might join the list in the future remains poor.”
Conflict of interest statement: “I was a Science Advisor on the latest Our Atmosphere and Climate report.”
Dr Joel Rindelaub, Senior Lecturer in Chemical Sciences, University of Auckland, comments:
“The costs of climate change are increasing, and New Zealand is already experiencing the impacts in economic terms. As the climate warms, there is an increased likelihood of severe weather events, which can have large economic impacts, as highlighted by the $3.8 billion in insured losses associated with Cyclone Gabrielle and Auckland Anniversary floods in 2023. Flood damage costs are expected to increase by 45 to 60 percent – up to $390 to $430 million a year – by 2075 while damage to water and electricity networks could increase by 65 to 80 percent (up to $420 to $460 million a year) over the same time period.
“The costs of climate change are not limited to disaster response and recovery. As the NZ economy is heavily reliant on the environment through agriculture, fisheries, and tourism, an unstable climate is a very real threat to New Zealanders’ income and food security. Kiwifruit production is already being affected by changes in temperature and rainfall, and modelling indicates a decline in production by 2060 for roughly 50 percent of fisheries in Tasman and Golden Bay and around 85 percent of fisheries in the Chatham Rise ecosystem*. It is important to note that New Zealand’s food security can also be affected by disruptions outside the country.
“This report indicates that New Zealand is not a leader in climate sustainability. While New Zealand makes up only 0.06 percent of the world’s population, it emits 0.17 percent of all global emissions, meaning that on a per capita basis New Zealand is one of the biggest emitters among Annex I countries – roughly on par with the United States.
“While 53 percent of New Zealand’s emissions originate from agriculture, the transport sector also represents an area of possible improvement (18 percent of emissions). Due to the dominance of road travel and associated traffic growth, road transport was the only carbon dioxide source to increase from 2005 to 2024.”
Conflict of interest statement: “No conflicts of interest to declare.”
*Correction (08/10/26): a previous version of this comment read “modelling indicates a roughly 50 percent loss of fisheries production in Tasman and Golden Bay and around an 85 percent loss in the Chatham Rise ecosystem by 2060.”