COP30 to focus on limiting warming, climate finance – Expert Reaction

Dr Jocelyn Turnbull, Principal Scientist – Carbon Cycle, Earth Sciences New Zealand, comments:

“The annual COP meetings are a huge event, with governments negotiating the fine details of how we can actually mitigate emissions, what is needed for adaptation, how to mobilise finance, how to incorporate voices from all communities, and many other topics. Around those official negotiations, there is a hoopla of side events where people from all around the world gather to talk about climate and how they are contributing to solving the problem. It’s a wonderful, but overwhelming, opportunity to connect with the many people from around the world who are doing their best to make a positive change.

“This year in Brazil COP30 is an opportunity to think about climate change mitigation and adaptation in developing countries that may have fewer resources but are also hardest hit by climate change. That’s of particular relevance for our Pacific neighbours.

“COP30 in Brazil highlights the importance of tropical forests in mitigating climate change, as the Amazon is the largest and most important tropical forest region on earth. We have seen massive deforestation, particularly in the eastern Amazon. This deforestation is typically accompanied by burning of the deforested material, and has resulted in the eastern Amazon no longer being a net sink for carbon, and instead becoming a net source to the atmosphere (i.e. it increases the climate problem rather than decreasing it). At the same time, this deforestation appears to be causing drying out of the Amazon forest, even in the western Amazon that is much more intact, with all sorts of consequences for climate and the environment.”

Conflict of interest statement: “I have contributed to the Amazon carbon cycle research I discuss here.”

Professor James Renwick, Professor of Physical Geography, Victoria University – Te Herenga Waka, comments:

“I have few expectations going into the COP meeting as I don’t see the process making much difference to reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, despite 30 years of talking.

“Anything that advances actual action on emissions reductions would be welcome, as would specifics on adaptation, and genuine pledges to contribute to the Loss & Damage fund. It would be interesting to hear about reactions to the ICJ ruling that countries have a legal obligation to protect the climate system and communities worldwide.”

Conflict of interest statement: “None that I know of, but I worked in the UN IPCC system for 20 years and have had other ties to UN agencies in the past. I have no such links now.”

Dr Priscila Besen, Senior Lecturer in Sustainable Architecture and Urban Design at School of Future Environments, AUT, comments:

“As someone originally from Brazil who now teaches and researches sustainable design in Aotearoa New Zealand, I am looking forward to attending COP30 this November. I am optimistic about the conference for several reasons:

• COP30 will focus on implementation and climate justice, with its setting in a Global South country ensuring that equitable transitions toward sustainability are at the forefront. The choice of the city of Belém, located in the Amazon forest, is both symbolic and strategic, spotlighting forest protection and Indigenous rights in climate negotiations. This year’s conference aims to move beyond dialogue and pledges, prioritising practical, actionable outcomes. Notably, there is an initiative to launch a global “Mutirão”—a term from the Tupi-Guarani language meaning “collective effort,” commonly used in Brazilian communities for immediate group action to solve local challenges. The call for a “Global Mutirão” seeks to bring this spirit of local collaboration to the international stage.
• The event will feature both top-down policy discussions and concurrent bottom-up initiatives. The Peoples’ Summit Towards COP30 (also known as Cúpula dos Povos) will run parallel to the official UN climate summit, providing civil society, social movements, and marginalised communities a platform to share their perspectives and demands for climate justice.
• It looks like Indigenous leaders will have strong representation in COP30 and parallel events, including a flotilla travelling over 3,000 km along regional rivers from Ecuador to Brazil. This fleet of Amazonian Indigenous peoples hopes to advocate for climate policies and funding that directly address their priorities. A group of 10 rangatahi Māori will also attend COP30, alongside many other groups from around the world, offering a unique opportunity to unite their voices in climate action.
• Brazil has a history of hosting significant climate change dialogues, such as Rio Eco 92 and Rio 2012, underscoring its longstanding role in global environmental diplomacy.
• Bringing COP30 to the Amazon opens up substantial opportunities for the region, gathering thousands of sustainability professionals and leaders. Brazil currently receives relatively few foreign tourists compared to major global destinations; expanding ecotourism could provide sustainable livelihoods for residents and help shift the economy away from extractive industries like cattle farming. While many foreigners wish to “save the Amazon,” it’s important to remember that the region is home to large cities and millions of people. Development in the region is a complex question; it needs to balance social and environmental sustainability for the local communities, ensuring they have income sources as part of a just transition.

“However, significant challenges remain:

• A recent decision by Brazilian authorities to approve oil exploration licences in the Amazon represents a significant setback in light of the upcoming COP30 summit. From an environmental perspective, this choice is deeply concerning. Nevertheless, this discussion is complex, as criticism from many Global North countries often overlooks the fact that they continue their own oil exploration activities in various regions around the world, frequently without facing the same degree of scrutiny directed at Brazil. Brazil primarily relies on renewable electricity sources, with 88.2% of its electricity generated by renewables in 2024—a rate higher than the world average and most OECD countries. Nevertheless, high car dependency and slow adoption of electric transport show that further progress is needed for full decarbonisation, and the country may remain reliant on oil for years to come.
• 2025 has been a difficult year for climate solutions, with many countries and major corporations backtracking on previously set climate targets. To avoid catastrophic consequences—including mass extinction events affecting both humanity and countless species—the global community must urgently move from dialogue and pledges to concrete action. This year, there were major wars taking place, causing widespread destruction of cities, very high carbon emissions and loss of thousands of human lives; it is not possible to talk about a sustainable future without addressing these issues. As the climate crisis intensifies, communities worldwide will increasingly face tough decisions about whether to prioritise funding for adaptation or mitigation. Ultimately, profound changes to our lifestyles and systems are essential to keep sustaining life on Earth in the years ahead. We have all the solutions and technologies needed to create a sustainable future; COP30 will be a decisive moment for the climate crisis and the future of the next generations.”

Conflict of interest statement: “I receive research funding from AUT, and I have a new research fund from MBIE – NZ. I have just started a new business selling sustainable products – but I believe this does not cause a conflict of interest in this case.”