The number of space launches allowed from NZ is set to increase from 100 to 1000.
The government says the current limit was expected to be reached this year, while the new limit would not be reached until 2050.
The decision follows a 2025 review of how space vehicle launch debris could affect our marine environment.
Further information on the space vehicle jettison debris regulation review is available here.
The SMC asked experts to comment.
Professor Laura Revell, Professor of Atmospheric Chemistry, University of Canterbury, comments:
“I understand from here that the government review focussed on the deposition of debris into the marine environment; effects on the atmosphere were defined to be out of scope.
“As our 2025 study found, an increase in global rocket launches could slow recovery of the ozone layer. At around 2,040 launches worldwide per year, our modelling found that recovery of the ozone layer slowed, particularly over Southern Hemisphere mid- to high latitudes (this location-specific ozone loss is a result of stratospheric chemistry and unrelated to launch location).
“For context, successful orbital launches worldwide increased approximately 3-fold between 2019-2025 (97 to 317) and a further ~6-7 fold increase on 2025’s launches would get us in the neighborhood of 2,040 launches per year, i.e. it is feasible given industrial aspirations and policy changes such as that announced today.
“The effects from NZ’s launches alone are unlikely to cause widespread damage to the ozone layer. But, launch rates are also increasing overseas and the cumulative effects add up.
“The atmosphere is the classic example of the tragedy of the commons. If launches don’t occur in NZ, they will likely occur in another country, and the damage to the ozone layer would occur just the same. This is the sort of problem that needs international cooperation and coordination.
“Last, effects of rockets on the ozone layer don’t just depend on the number of launches, but also the type of fuel. Oversight on the types of fuels in use (from a global perspective) could be one way to ensure the industry grows in a way that is sustainable for the atmospheric environment but also realises the benefits that space-based technologies might offer.”
Conflict of interest statement: “Lead author on the forthcoming IPCC assessment report, member of the UNEP Environmental Effects Assessment Panel which assesses the effects of ozone depletion and UV radiation on life on Earth, member of the International Ozone Commission. No funding received for research on rocket launches.”
Professor Richard Easther, Department of Physics, University of Auckland, comments:
“On the face of it, this is an exciting and positive announcement. New Zealand is the only small country in the world with a commercial orbital launch provider using locally built rockets. This decision will help the tech sector and our science community develop the opportunities this remarkable achievement creates.
“One thousand launches is a large number. However, Rocket Lab currently launches about 20 times a year from New Zealand – even with strong growth this quota will last for decades. That said, Rocket Lab has developed booster recovery techniques. These cannot be used with every mission profile but leaving the booster on the sea floor is often a financial choice rather than a necessity.
“More broadly, the number of orbiting satellites is dramatically increasing. We are at the point where the visual appearance of the night sky and potentially the chemistry of the upper atmosphere can be significantly altered by human activity and the global policy environment has not kept pace. As a country that regulates orbital launch New Zealand should be at the front of these discussions. However, the announcement is silent on this context.
“Finally, these launches will be regulated by the New Zealand Space Agency, a division of MBIE. The NZSA also managed our relationship with MethaneSAT. This mission failed last year but was supposedly a “flagship” for our emerging space programme. There is widespread concern that the NZSA has not been forthcoming about what went wrong and was overly deferential to their high-profile international partner on the mission.
“Consequently, until these issues are addressed, many participants in the space community will be concerned that the NZSA lacks the capacity to make good decisions about these launches, especially as their commercial and sometimes political sensitivity means that there is very limited opportunity for oversight.”
Conflict of interest statement: “None.”
Associate Professor Annika Seppälä, Department of Physics, University of Otago, comments:
“Professor Laura Revell’s team (Canterbury University) published a study where they calculated the atmospheric impact from a GLOBAL growth of launches in a ‘conservative growth’ scenario to ~1000 rocket launches by 2030. This gives us a baseline for potential atmospheric impacts, remembering that we are now talking about 1000 launches from NZ alone by 2050.
“Following their conservative growth scenario, by 2050 likely about a third of all launches would be from NZ, unlike in their calculation where the launches were primarily from the Northern Hemisphere. Why is this important? They found a nearly 2% additional ozone depletion over Antarctica by 2030, warning that this will slow down ozone recovery. I would expect that launching more frequently from NZ will result in a much larger impact on Antarctic ozone.
“People associate ozone primarily with UV radiation levels, but Antarctic ozone has large impacts on weather and climate conditions in NZ. Much more than locations in the Northern Hemisphere.
“While the propellant used will influence the severity of the ozone impact, I worry that we are walking into a territory of unplanned consequences. To my knowledge there has not been a review of the potential atmospheric impacts relevant to NZ; the environmental risks assessed to justify the increase of launches to 1000 were focused on space vehicle jettison debris in the seabed. Europe is way ahead of us with research funding dedicated to assessing impacts which will help guide policy decision. Critically, in terms of the ozone layer, because of our location we are much more susceptible to feel the impacts of this.”
Conflict of interest statement: “Associate Professor Seppälä was not part of the University of Canterbury led research on rocket launch impacts on atmospheric ozone.”