The Government has decided to not include international shipping and aviation emissions in our 2050 target, going against the Climate Change Commission’s recommendations.
Today’s announcement confirms the government is rejecting all of the Commission’s recent advice for our 2050 climate change target, including its recommendations on methane, and a net-negative target.
The SMC asked experts to comment.
Professor Lisa Ellis, University of Otago, comments:
“The way the Paris Agreement and net zero targets work is that each country makes its own decisions about how to transition to a low emissions economy. Here in New Zealand we are extremely remote, dependent on international aviation and shipping for our tourism industry, our agricultural and other exports, and nearly everything else we do. Including international aviation and shipping in our 2050 target would mean that we take responsibility for the emissions associated with our unique way of life, giving potential tourists and trade partners confidence that money spent here is not contributing to climate change. It is a shame that we missed this opportunity.”
Conflict of interest statement: “None.”
Distinguished Professor Robert McLachlan, College of Sciences, Massey University, comments:
“The Climate Change Commission recommended that international aviation and shipping be included in our 2050 target, because the global 1.5 ºC target requires all emissions to reach net zero by the 2050s, and our climate Act requires us to support that global effort. They are currently 9% of our net emissions, 6.7 million tonnes of carbon dioxide, but could reach 60% by 2050 if no action is taken. The Commission found that inclusion is realistic, feasible, consistent with what other countries are doing, and in our best interests.
“Instead of following the Act, the Government has followed its own objectives, such as ‘Going for Growth’, and declined the recommendation. This does not seem to be a result of industry lobbying, as both the aviation and the tourism industries supported the Commission’s advice. The Government estimates the impact on growth would be less than 0.01% per year.
“Air New Zealand has its own net zero 2050 target, as does the global aviation body IATA and the UN’s international civil aviation organisation, ICAO. Under ICAO rules we are expected to describe how we intend to reach net zero aviation emissions by 2050 – but we haven’t submitted our plan yet and all work on it appears to have been stopped. Air New Zealand needs this high-level, government-led direction to succeed. It’s a similar situation for shipping, where New Zealand shamefully abstained from a recent carbon pricing vote at the International Maritime Organisation.
“Like the recent backtracking on methane, this decision leaves a large sector of emissions completely unregulated, but with an important difference – fossil CO₂ is a long-lived gas. Allowing it to cause unlimited amounts of damage now only creates a bigger problem for the future.”
Conflict of interest statement: ” No conflicts of interest”
Associate Professor Inga Smith, Department of Physics, University of Otago; and member of He Kaupapa Hononga: Otago’s Climate Change Research Network, comments:
“The New Zealand Government today announced that they will not follow the Climate Change Commission’s recommendation to include international shipping and aviation emissions in the 2050 target. Unlike domestic transport emissions, international transport emissions are not currently included in the target. By deciding to continue with the status quo of not including international transport emissions in New Zealand’s target, the emissions will keep on growing and damaging Earth’s climate.
“New Zealand’s economy is highly dependent on international transport of goods and people, but strangely official estimates of what the emissions are from this sector are not accurate; the Climate Change Commission needed to estimate the emissions by drawing on various sources because the current “bunker fuels” methods miss large amounts for fuel burnt for ships and planes travelling to and from New Zealand.
“Not only does New Zealand not know the extent of these emissions, there is no plan to reduce them. The International Maritime Organization and the International Civil Aviation Organization were given the task of dealing with international transport emissions alongside the Kyoto Protocol and Paris Agreement negotiations, but very little progress has been made. New Zealand’s international transport emissions could at least be better monitored in the future; disappointingly, the Government has decided not to even undertake this simple, first step.”
Conflict of interest statement: “None to declare.”
Jocelyn Turnbull, Principal Scientist – Carbon Cycle, ESNZ, comments:
“International shipping and aviation emissions are only a few percent of total global emissions, and they have been left out of international reporting because they have always been a challenge in emissions accounting and reporting – how should these emissions be allocated to each country?
“As an isolated country, New Zealand’s international shipping and aviation is likely to be a larger share of our emissions than for many other countries, and by reporting and counting these emissions we would create a mechanism to encourage mitigating them.
“But on the flip side, without an international agreement on how these emissions should be counted, New Zealand would need to make our own decisions on how to account for these, and our domestic policies and actions would not be in harmony with our international reporting requirements and agreements.
“I would argue that New Zealand should instead continue to work through the UNFCCC to create agreed and equitable international frameworks on reporting these emissions, along with other areas such as blue carbon offsets that are not yet included in international reporting.”
Conflict of interest statement: “None.”