A 787 Dreamliner aircraft carrying 242 people crashed last night (NZ time) shortly after taking off in the city of Ahmedabad in western India.
The airline, Air India, said 229 passengers and 12 crew members were killed in the crash; it has confirmed there is one survivor. The flight was bound for London, and the plane’s history shows it regularly flies between India and destinations including Paris, Frankfurt, Tokyo, Amsterdam, and Melbourne.
The SMC asked experts to comment.
Emeritus Professor David O’Hare, Department of Psychology, University of Otago, comments:
Note: Emeritus Professor O’Hare has researched pilot decision making and aviation safety.
“Obviously, air accident investigation is a data-driven exercise and until the flight data recordings are analysed it’s impossible to give any definitive answers.
“I have looked at the data available on FlightRadar24 which shows the aircraft reached 675ft above ground level. The rate of climb appears lower than normal (approximately half as much as the flight the previous day) which could be caused by a number of factors:
- Engine power loss – the pilots monitor engine power carefully during take-off and could reject the take off if there was a problem. This does not seem to have been the case here as take off was continued and the aircraft rotated and began to climb out.
- Flap setting – an incorrect flap setting could compromise climb out performance. Retracting the flaps too early can cause loss of lift. The data recordings will show exactly what happened with the flaps.
- Undercarriage – if the undercarriage failed to retract then this would cause excess drag and loss of lift. Again, this will be shown on the flight data recorder.
“This aircraft appears to have had a normal take off roll but something has compromised the climb out performance. This might be something to do with the undercarriage and/or the flaps or something else entirely (e.g. Bird strike although a double strike affecting both engines is extremely rare).
“Air transport is exceedingly safe with very few accidents. The majority of these do occur on either take off or landing.
“Horrific events like this can make air travel appear less safe but these events are exceedingly rare and NZ and Pacific journalists should know that airlines in this region have some of the best safety records in the world.”
No conflicts declared.
Our colleagues at the Australian Science Media Centre have also gathered expert comments. Additional expert comments are available on Scimex.
Professor Paul Salmon is from the Centre for Human Factors and Sociotechnical Systems at the University of the Sunshine Coast:
“Whilst the exact circumstances of the Air India Flight 171 crash are not known, what we can be sure of is that multiple contributory factors will have interacted to create the incident. Though there is often a strong focus on the flight crew and their behaviour in the immediate aftermath of such incidents, we also typically see contributory factors relating to the aircraft and its design, airports and air traffic controllers, the airline and its policies, procedures, and processes (e.g., training, maintenance, risk assessment), the aircraft manufacturer, regulatory bodies, and government to name only a few.
“In the case of Air India Flight 171, whilst there are some early indicators of what may have happened, it is important to let the investigation take its course. This will be exhaustive, will adopt a systems thinking perspective, and will be underpinned by a no-blame approach.
“Critically, rather than seeking to identify ‘human errors’ which are misleading and often prevent learning, the investigation will seek to understand why the flight crew’s actions made sense to them at the time. This perspective will enable us to understand the full network of contributory factors involved and will reveal how the overall aviation system failed.”
Paul has not declared any conflicts of interest.
Salim Hijazeen is an Aviation Lecturer at Swinburne University of Technology:
“While the full circumstances surrounding Air India flight AI171, operated by a Boeing 787 Dreamliner, are still emerging, we must refrain from speculation and wait for investigators to conduct a thorough, evidence-based review.
“My deepest thoughts are with the families and loved ones affected by this tragedy.
“The Boeing 787 Dreamliner entered service in 2011 and is a technologically advanced long-haul aircraft operated by airlines such as Qantas and Jetstar globally. It features a carbon fibre composite fuselage, highly fuel-efficient engines, and advanced safety redundancies, including real-time systems monitoring and enhanced flight control protections designed to assist crews in complex scenarios.
“Incidents involving modern commercial aircraft are rare. When they do occur, they are rigorously investigated by independent safety bodies. The aviation industry operates under some of the world’s most stringent safety regulations.
“As confronting as this event is, it is through careful investigation and shared learning that the aviation sector continues to improve.”
Salim has not declared any conflicts of interest.
Professor Sidney Dekker is a Professor in the School of Humanities, Languages and Social Science, and Director of the Safety Science Innovation Lab at Griffith University:
“Commercial aviation is very well protected (with multiple redundancies, layers of defence, procedures) against the deleterious effects of single errors or failures. Accidents are the result of a line-up or concatenation of multiple causes and contributors, all necessary and only jointly sufficient to push a system over the edge into catastrophe.
“The inability to gain adequate height after take-off can have a number of reasons, related to for instance the inability of the engines to produce adequate thrust (which itself can have a host of different reasons) or the configuration of the airframe/wings/wingflaps, or a combination of both (which itself can once again have a number of reasons).
“Investigations take time and often prove initial speculations wrong.”
Sidney has not declared any conflicts of interest.