A new study in Nature reports that two people with tetraplegia were able to reach for and grasp objects in three-dimensional space with robotic arms that they controlled directly with brain activity.

A 58-year-old woman, “S3,” and a 66-year-old man, “T2,” participated in the study. They had each been paralyzed by a brainstem stroke years earlier which left them with no functional control of their limbs.

The BrainGate2 pilot clinical trial employs the BrainGate system in which a baby aspirin-sized device with a grid of 96 tiny electrodes is implanted in the motor cortex—a part of the brain that is involved in voluntary movement.

The study represents the first demonstration and the first peer-reviewed report of people with tetraplegia using brain signals to control a robotic arm in three-dimensional space to complete a task usually performed by their arm.  Specifically, S3 and T2 controlled the arms to reach for and grasp foam targets that were placed in front of them using flexible supports.  In addition, S3 used the robot arm to pick up a bottle of coffee, bring it to her mouth, issue a command to tip it, drink through a straw, and return the bottle to the table.

“Our goal in this research is to develop technology that will restore independence and mobility for people with paralysis or limb loss,” said lead author Dr. Leigh Hochberg, a neuroengineer and critical care neurologist who holds appointments at the Department of Veterans Affairs, Brown University, Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard.  “We have much more work to do, but the encouraging progress of this research is demonstrated not only in the reach-and-grasp data, but even more so in S3’s smile when she served herself coffee of her own volition for the first time in almost 15 years.”

The BrainGate success has been covered both here and overseas:

Stuff.co.nz: Quadriplegic uses mind to control robotic arm

New Zealand Herald: Woman uses thoughts to control robotic arm

Guardian: Mind-controlled robotic arm

BBC News: Paralysed patients use thoughts to control robotic arm

USA Today: Paralysis victims use brain signals to control robotic arm

Reuters: Paralyzed woman uses thoughts to move robotic arm

The future of resources found on – or under – the seabed surrounding New Zealand has been the focus of media interest this week.

This week the Science Media Centre held a briefing for journalists in conjunction with the launch of an  Emerging Issues Paper, Future Marine Resource Use,  from the Royal Society of New Zealand.

A media release from the Royal Society of New Zealand is available here.

The paper reviewed the current knowledge around resources available in New Zealand’s Exclusive Economic Zone and Extended Continental Shelf. In addition to noting assets such as oil, gas and minerals, the paper also touched on less obvious areas such as tidal power. Furthermore, the paper outlined the potential environmental risks that must be taken into account when planning for sustainable use of these resources.

The paper was produced by the Royal Society of New Zealand as part of a series that seeks to inform the public on emerging and sometimes contentious issues around science and technology.

Media coverage included:

 Stuff.co.nz: Making the most of NZ’s undersea wealth

Otago Daily Times: Future in sea: scientists

The launch of the  Emerging Issues Paper coincided with the release of the Local Government and Environment Select Committee’s report on the Exclusive Economic Zone and Continental Shelf (Environmental Effects) Bill. The bill aims to create an environmental management regime for New Zealand’s Exclusive Economic Zone and continental shelf. Media coverage of the select committee report has highlighted the lack of support for the bill from the Labour and Green opposition parties:

New Zealand Herald: Govt’s marine bill draws flak ahead of progression

MSN NZ News: EEZ bill rejected by Labour and the Greens

Radio New Zealand: Parties reject bill to regulate territorial waters

3 News: Greens to oppose sea-drilling law

Did you know that 96 percent of New Zealand is underwater?

New Zealand’s ocean territory is vast. Its EEZ (Exclusive Economic Zone) stretches across an area twenty times greater than its dry land.  Scientific surveying allowed the country to expand its claim further in 2008, giving it rights to additional seabed minerals and resources. 

But with this growth has come widespread recognition that there are gaps in the environmental laws that cover this ocean territory.

Legislation targeting environmental impacts from marine resource use in the EEZ is currently before parliament, with the Local Government and Environment Select Committee releasing a report on the bill this week.

An Emerging Issues paper on the topic of ‘Future marine resource use’  has been released by the Royal Society of New Zealand. The paper draws together scientific expertise on key issues relating to marine minerals, energy, biodiversity and other resources.

A copy of the paper is available here.

The Science Media Centre hosted a media briefing examining issues like marine oil and gas, undersea mining, fisheries, bioprospecting, environmental risks and more. 

Click below to listen to the briefing audio:

Issues covered:

• What is the EEZ and why should we care about it?
• What’s out there and how much remains unexplored?
• What kind of mineral wealth, living resources, and energy potential can we tap?
• How do we decide what to protect and how best to preserve it?

Briefing Participants:

Dr Michael Vincent McGinnis is an Associate Professor in International Marine Policy and Science at the Monterey Institute of International Studies and the National Center for the Blue Economy in California, USA. He is also a Senior Associate of the Institute of Policy Studies at Victoria University of Wellington and author of a recently completed report on ocean governance in New Zealand.

Dr Cornel de Ronde is a geologist and geochemist at GNS Science. He was leader of the six-year Mineral Wealth of New Zealand EEZ programme. His research has focused on off-shore mineral resources associated with submarine volcanoes and hydrothermal vents.

Prof Chris Battershill holds the inaugural Chair of Coastal Science at the University of Waikato, with prior experience at the Australian Institute of Marine Science, the Department of Conservation and NIWA, His research interests include environmental toxicology, marine invasive species,biodiscovery, marine resource exploration, and predicting environmental effects associated with the oil and gas industry.

A segment on today’s Nine to Noon on Radio New Zealand examines the issue of science teaching in primary schools in the wake of an Education Review Office report indicating a lack of effective science teaching in New Zealand.

The discussion features: Steven Sexton, University of Otago primary education lecturer, who is on the board of NZ Association of Science Educators; Peter Lind, director of the Teachers Council; and Richard Meylan, education manager for The Royal Society of NZ.

The Science Media Centre’s latest Heads-Up newsletter is out – bringing you the latest science and tech news and a peek at what’s coming up in the week ahead.

Click on the image below to read the latest Heads-Up.

A genetic analysis of several strains of the Psa bacterium, conducted by American and Italian scientists, suggests a Chinese origin for the bacterium that has caused millions of dollars of damage to the New Zealand kiwifruit industry. However, more data from affected New Zealand kiwifruit are needed to complete the picture. 

The new research, published in the journal PLoS One today, aimed to trace the genetic origins of several bacterial strains of the kiwifruit vine canker, Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae (Psa). It is the first study released in a scientific journal to trace the bacterium back to its likely origin of China.

To find the root of the disease, the researchers examined how the bacteria may have evolved from the same ancestor by comparing the DNA from the different bacteria to each other. They found that the bacteria from China, Europe, and New Zealand were almost identical; but one small difference in one region of the DNA linked the New Zealand outbreak to the Chinese bacteria.

The researchers think that the most likely scenario is that the bacterium was imported from China into Italy and from China into New Zealand independently, but the concede that further data from NZ strains is required to fully confirm this.

“While our current genomic data suggest a possible Chinese origin of the European outbreak, we only have data obtained with genome-derived markers for the New Zealand outbreak.” The authors note in the article. “The origin of the New Zealand outbreak will thus remain an open question until complete genome sequences from New Zealand strains become available.”

Psa genome sequencing research being undertaken in New Zealand will provide further clues to the origins of the New Zealand outbreak.

The Science Media Centre contacted New Zealand researchers for comment on the research. Feel free to use these quotes in your reporting. If you would like to contact a New Zealand expert, please contact the SMC (04 499 5476; smc@sciencemediacentre.co.nz).

Dr Margi Butler, Research Fellow, Department of Biochemistry, University of Otago, comments:

“We have previously reported that the NZ strains of Psa are very closely related to the Chinese and later Italian Psa strains and that these strains are more distantly related to the Japanese strains. These core conclusions are supported by the research provided by Mazzaglia et al [the new study]. The Mazzaglia data extends the analysis by considering Korean strains and by including the related (tea) pathogen, Ps theae. It is very pleasing that the two analyses should be in such close agreement.

“The Mazzaglia et al. analysis does not attempt a full genome sequence of any of the NZ strains and for this reason the authors concede ‘The origin of the New Zealand outbreak will thus remain an open question until complete genome sequences from New Zealand strains become available’. We have completed such analysis of four NZ strains and partial sequences from a further eight. This NZ data has enabled us to assert previously that the NZ outbreak was not derived from Europe and that the Italian outbreak was not derived from NZ. Mazzaglia et al do not attempt to address this question.

“Another important consideration is the relevance of the Chilean Psa outbreak. We are in the process of generating a full genome sequence of Chilean strains and this data (which should be completed in a few weeks) will determine the relationship between the Chilean strains and those of China, Europe and NZ. The Chilean strains are very closely related to the China/Italy/NZ strains.

“We are performing these analyses under contract to TaskForce Green an industry group established by Seeka and Eastpack. We have provided our analyses to them for release to interested parties as a matter of urgency. We have also provided data before publication to MAF NZ for their consideration as part of the investigation into the source of Psa in NZ. We will, of course, put our genome sequence data into international genome databases and will also publish our findings in the peer-reviewed literature.”

Dr Matt Templeton, Co-leader Plant Bioprotection Systems Biology, Plant & Food Research, comments:

“Psa is a major issue for the New Zealand kiwifruit industry and increasing our knowledge of the bacterium will help scientists in New Zealand and around the world develop new methods of controlling the disease.

“This new research will provide useful information for scientists looking at the origin of the bacterial disease around the world. In New Zealand, our science teams are focused on the control of the disease in our ecosystem and limiting its impact on the kiwifruit industry, one of our largest horticultural sectors.

“DNA sequence of the whole genome of Psa has enabled scientists at Plant & Food Research to identify genes controlling the virulence of this pathogen.  In the first instance this information was used to design a highly specific detection system that is now the industry standard. The current focus of scientists at Plant & Food Research is to identify the key factors that enable Psa to cause disease on kiwifruit.  Several unique factors have been found and their role in causing disease is being determined. The search is now on for finding resistance genes in our extensive kiwifruit germplasm that will target these key Psa factors.  These resistance genes will be fast-tracked into our kiwifruit breeding programme.” 

Fact box:

• Psa is a bacterial canker of kiwifruit caused by the bacterium Pseudomonas syringae pv. Actinidiae.  
• Psa causes a red or white bacterial slime to ooze out of the plant’s stems and branches. In the
  worst case, the entire plant wilts and dies.
• Psa was first identified in Japan in the 1980s.
• The first validated report of Psa in New Zealand was on 5th November, 2010 in Te Puke.
• The strain in New Zealand, Psa-V, is particularly virulent.
• A recent MAF investigation was unable to determine how the disease entered the country.
• A Kiwifruit Vine Health report released today estimates that in the next 5 years Psa will:
• Cost the industry between $310 million and $410 million
• Result in the loss of up to 470 jobs a year between 2012 and 2015
• According to the latest statistics (updated today, 9 May 2012):
• A total of 1184 orchards in New Zealand are infected with Psa-V.
• That represents 36% of all NZ kiwifruit orchards.

A project to map the Weddell Sea area of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet from the air has revealed that this largely unexplored region is potentially on the threshold of change.

Radar mapping of the ice-covered landscape has uncovered a deep sub-glacial basin close to the edge of the ice sheet.

The study, published in Nature Geoscience, found that the basin measures 100 by 200 km and is well below sea level, nearly 2km deep in places. The ice sheet, currently grounded above the deep basin, may be more unstable than previously thought and could quickly undergo ice loss.

In a related paper published in Nature, models reveal that the Weddell Sea region may experience warmer ocean conditions at the end of the 21st century, which could provide the trigger for ice sheet change.

Professor Martin Siegert of the University of Edinburgh, who led the project, said: “This is a significant discovery in a region of Antarctica that at present we know little about. The area is on the brink of change, but it is impossible to predict what the impact of this change might be without further work enabling better understanding of how the West Antarctic Ice Sheet behaves.”

Our colleagues at the Canadian SMC collected the following expert commentary. Feel free to use these quotes in your reporting. If you would like to contact a New Zealand expert, please contact the SMC (04 499 5476; smc@sciencemediacentre.co.nz).

Dr. Jeremy Fyke, Postdoctoral Research Associate, Glacier  & ice sheet modeller, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Santa Fe, NM, USA. (Formerly with the Climate Modelling Group, Victoria University of Wellington, NZ).

“Antarctic ice shelves are massive floating glaciers that ring the Antarctic Ice Sheet.  These ice shelves receive ice from the world’s largest glaciers, which flow off the Antarctic continent and lose ice primarily through melting on their undersides when the come into contact with warm Southern Ocean water (little melting occurs on the surface of the ice shelves, because the Antarctic air is generally below freezing year-round).  Critically, if the ocean water under an ice shelf warms, even by a few degrees Celsius, the ice shelf will melt much faster.  If it melts faster, it will thin and cause an acceleration in the flow of grounded glacial ice into the ocean.  This acceleration of glacial flow, when applied to the massive glaciers that drain the Antarctic ice sheet, can easily result in multiple meters of global sea level rise over timescales of hundreds to thousands of years.  Recent geologic expeditions to the Antarctic coast have confirmed that this behavior last occurred millions years ago when climate conditions were very similar to those of the present day (but much cooler than temperatures that are predicted in the future under human-driven climate change).

“Thus, ocean-driven melting under Antarctic ice shelves is a critical process in the planetary climate system, because significant changes to Antarctic ice shelf melt rates can ultimately result in large shifts in global sea level.   However, until now a lack of advanced Southern Ocean models and a poor understanding of the sub-shelf marine environment has largely prevented the climate science community from predicting the impact of future human-induced climate change on Antarctic ice shelves.

“Now, Hellmer et al. (Nature, 2012) provide new scientific findings that for the first time quantify the impact of future human-induced climate change on Antarctic ice shelf behavior.  The authors use a high-resolution ocean model to accurately simulate Southern Ocean currents, especially those that flow past and under the large Antarctic ice shelves.  In particular they focus their attention on ocean patterns near the Ronne-Filchener Ice Shelf, which at 449,000 km2 (the size of France) is the 2nd-largest floating ice shelf on the planet.  When they run their model with predicted future human greenhouse gas emissions, a reduction of offshore marine sea ice drives large changes in Southern Ocean circulation patterns.  These circulation changes cause deep, warm ocean currents to rise and invade the marine cavity under the Ronne-Filchener Ice Shelf.  The resulting increase in sub-shelf water temperatures drives a whopping (1800%) increase in melt rate during the mid-21st century, which is capable of
rapidly thinning the massive ice shelf and potentially drastically accelerating ice loss from the Antarctic continent.

“The finding, of increased melt rates due to ocean circulation changes, is reproduced consistently in several simulations with independent ocean models and different emission scenarios. This reproducibility lends confidence to the study’s conclusions.  Furthermore, the increase in melting they project under the Ronne-Filchener Ice Shelf
is probably conservative given that ice shelves in their ocean model do not change shape with time and their computationally expensive simulations end at year 2200 or earlier.

“Ultimately, this study implies that regional Southern Ocean circulation changes due to human-caused planetary warming will cause dramatic increases in melt rates under the massive Ronne-Filchener Ice Shelf (and probably other Antarctic ice shelves as well). This melting has the potential to drive Antarctic ice loss and sea level to heights that have not been seen for millions of years.  Ultimately, it is a profoundly disturbing statement from the climate science community about the consequences of unabated greenhouse gas emissions.”

Dr. Martin Sharp, Arctic & Alpine Research Group, Department of Earth & Atmospheric Sciences, University of Alberta,  comment:

1. The important result is that the basal melting rate of the Ronne-Filchner ice shelf has the potential to change dramatically as a result of changes in the delivery of warm ocean water into the cavity beneath the ice shelf. The projected changes are large enough (roughly 20x increase in melt rate) to significantly alter the mass balance of
the entire Antarctic ice sheet. The projected higher annual mass loss rate from beneath the ice shelf is equivalent to roughly 80% of estimates of the current total annual net mass loss from the entire ice sheet.

2. This is a model based study. An ice-ocean model is driven by output from 2 versions of a single climate model, forced with 2 different IPCC atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration scenarios that lead to climate warming. It is not based on observations. In my view, this means that the study demonstrates something that potentially could happen under specific circumstances – it should not be viewed as making a definitive projection, or as showing something that already is happening. Different climate models forced in different ways might lead the ice-ocean model to produce quite different results – either more or less dramatic.

3. Having said that, the model results do demonstrate something that could be watched for in observations – and the changes suggested are sufficiently large that it might be a good idea to try to do this.

4. The mechanism involved is as follows: as the atmosphere warms, the difference in temperature between the atmosphere and the ocean is decreased, and the ocean losses less heat to the atmosphere as a result – so the ocean warms up. At the same time, downward longwave radiation from the warmer atmosphere increases and this reduces the thickness and concentration of sea ice in the Weddell Sea, allowing the ice pack to become more mobile.This increases stress transfer to the surface layer of the ocean and causes the surface current that flows around Antarctica to veer to the left towards the front of the the Ronne-Filchner ice shelf (due to the effect of the Earth’s rotation). As the flux of warm water into the cavity below the ice shelf increases, the mean temperature of water in the cavity increases, driving up the rate of melting of the base of the ice shelf.

5. The paper is clearly written and the study has been carefully conducted. The authors are clear (and realistic)  about both the implications and limitations of the results. We should take them for what they are and not  over-react.

Dr. Christian Schoof, Associate Professor, Department of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of British Columbia, comments:

“This paper shows that we may see a drastic increase in melting of floating ice tongues off the coast of Antarctica during this century. If this does occur, it is likely that ice flow from the interior of Antarctica towards the coast will accelerate, pushing more ice into the ocean. Just like adding ice cubes to a glass of water raises the water level in the glass, pushing more ice into the oceans will increase sea levels.

“The potential of ice stored inland in Antarctica to raise sea levels is large: West Antarctica alone contains enough ice to raise sea levels on average by 3.5 metres. Sea level rise on that scale will not happen instantly, and is likely to take several hundred years. But sea level even on a smaller scale of tens of centimetres is enough to put coastal infrastructure and settlements into jeopardy.

“The paper by Hellmer and colleagues shows that warm water that naturally circulates around Antarctica could be forced closer to shore. This would occur when sea ice around Antarctica melts due to warming temperatures. Sea ice acts as a lid on the ocean. It stops winds from moving ocean water effectively. With the lid gone, winds are much more efficient at moving ocean water – think of how winds make the ocean surface rough, which doesn’t happen with a layer of ice between wind and water.

“If this water flows in close enough to reach the floating ice tongues, it will dramatically increase melting. We have seen this elsewhere in Antarctica, where the result has been dramatic ice loss from the continent.
What is new here is that this may happen in the big bays off West Antarctica, where the potential for ice loss is even larger.

“The methodology used is sound by today’s standards. It uses a computer model of ocean and atmosphere movements to calculate how much warm water will reach the bottom of the floating ice tongues. Confidence in the model comes from its ability to reproduce ocean behaviour during the 20th century [i.e. in the past]. As with all projections into the future, we will only be able to see exactly how well the model works for a warmer climate after the fact – so in 50 to a 100 years’ time.”

Dr. J. Graham Cogley, Professor of Geography, Department of Geography, Trent University, comments:

“We have known for at least ten years, and with growing confidence, that very rapid rates of mass loss from the frontage of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet on the Amundsen Sea [below the “AP” in Hellmer et al.’s Figure 1] are attributable to flows of warm water from the continental shelf offshore. Everything is relative: these “warm” waters are sometimes below the freezing point of fresh water. Nevertheless they are transferring large amounts of heat to the undersides of the ice shelves in that region.

“The result is intense thinning of the ice shelves – but they don’t get significantly thinner. Instead they exert less  buttressing of the grounded ice that feeds them. The grounded ice speeds up dramatically and, to cut a long story short, ice gets “sucked” out of the ice sheet and into the ice shelf at rates much faster than before the warm water arrived.

“This is why we should all be concerned. The ice in the ice shelf makes its contribution to sea-level rise when it flows across the grounding line – the line at which the grounded ice begins to float. The Amundsen coast of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is a major player in present-day sea-level rise for this reason.

“The Hellmer study is a projection into future decades, not a description of what is happening now. But it is valuable because it dramatizes what is very likely to happen to a part of the margin of Antarctica that is relatively sheltered today. There is no reason to expect that continued global warming will not have consequences like those described by Hellmer and his co-authors, and on the scale that they suggest. The best time to start trying to avert these consequences was a couple of decades ago.

Dr. Shawn Marshall, Canada Research Chair in Climate Change, Cryosphere Climate Research Group, Department of Geography, University of Calgary, comments:

“This is solid new work which increases the emphasis on what glaciologists are just starting to understand: that in Antarctica, ice sheet collapse and sea level rise are all about the ocean.  The ice shelf in the Weddell Sea sector is one of the two ‘linchpin’ ice shelves in West Antarctica, and it would be a frightening prospect for global sea level rise if this unhinged. It has long been known that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is intrinsically unstable, and it is currently losing mass, but I am not sure how many glaciologists expect the ice sheet to unravel this century. Their prediction that circumpolar deep water could get into this sector of the ice sheet this century is the first time anyone has put a timetable on large-scale ice sheet changes.  Even if there is only a 10% chance that this proves true, this has huge implications for forecasts of sea level rise.  It could easily double the current IPCC [International Panel on Climate Change] projections for 2100.

“The mechanisms of ocean-ice shelf interactions are only just being understood in the scientific community, but everything we have learned in the last decade (e.g., in the Amundsen Sea and in Greenland) tells us that this is a real threat to the ice sheet.  Certainly waters that are 2°C in contact with the ice shelf would lead to its quick demise. It is just a question of whether the Antarctic sea ice changes really occur as forecast in the model, as this leads to the increased mixing and shifts in ocean circulation that deliver the warm water to the ice sheet. So far, Antarctic sea ice has proven to be very resilient to climate change, so we have not yet seen the initial stages of what is projected in this climate model.”

Dr. Jeffrey Kavanaugh, Associate Professor, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Alberta, comments:

“This paper investigates the impact that a warming climate will have on the circulation of waters in the Ronne-Filchner Ice Shelf region of the Weddell Sea basin.  Circulation patterns in this basin are important, as they control the extent to which the ice shelf is subjected to melt by (relatively) warm ocean currents. They also play
an important role in global ocean circulation patterns by generating the coldest, deepest current in the world’s oceans.  These currents are the result of a few details particular to the region, including: (1) the sea floor inland of the continental shelf slopes downward to the south – that is, towards the continent, rather than away from it;
(2) the presence of the ice shelf; and (3) that present-day wind and water circulation patterns here encourage the formation of sea ice. Because salt is rejected during sea ice formation, the freezing of surface waters increases the salinity (and hence density) of waters below, which then descend down-slope to contact the ice shelf where it
meets the sea floor.  Contact between this “shelf water” and the ice shelf results in modern-day basal melting rates averaging ~0.2 meters per year.

“Model investigations by the authors show that continued warming in the region will likely result in a reorganization of circulation patterns in the Weddell Sea basin.  The primary cause of these changes will be a decrease in local sea ice production, which will allow greater coupling between surface winds and water currents (even in the absence of increased wind speeds).  Model results indicate that as early as 2070, the relatively warm coastal ocean current will be consistently directed southwards, towards the Ronne-Filchner Ice Shelf via the Filchner Trough.  This will warm the waters contacting the underside of the ice shelf by ~2°C, resulting in a 20-fold increase in the rate of melting (to an average of ~4 meters per year).  This result appears robust, with the onset of these flow changes varying by a couple of decades depending on the climatic scenarios tested.  Two different coupled ice-ocean models of different architecture are also employed. Results for both are roughly similar, with the finite-element FESOM model (able to resolve finer features and additional dynamics) showing earlier increases in basal ice melting rates.

“The Antarctic Peninsula, which borders the Weddell Sea on its western edge, is a region of particularly rapid warming.  In the past two decades, several of the peninsula’s ice shelves have collapsed, including the Larsen B (2002) and Wilkins (2008) Ice Shelves.  Because the Ronne-Filchner Ice Shelf is situated further south, air temperatures are significantly colder than for the peninsular ice shelves, and surface melting is unlikely to soon become significant. The ice shelf is, however, subject to increased basal melt the temperature of waters contacting its underside increase.  This is precisely what the modeling work presented here suggests will happen.
This would likely result in a number of changes not explicitly modeled here, but that might further accelerate change of the ice sheet – including thinning of the ice shelf, acceleration of the ice streams feeding the ice shelf, and a retreat of the junction between floating and grounded portions of the ice shelf.  Changes along these lines are currently being observed in the Amundsen Sea region of West Antarctica, increasing concerns about the stability of the marine-based West Antarctic Ice Sheet (whose collapse could increase global sea level by several meters).”

Dr. Robert Bindschadler, Emeritus Scientist, (and former Chief scientist), Cryospheric Sciences Laboratory, Hydrospheric and Biospheric Sciences, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, comments:

“Ice shelves are thinning in multiple locations around Antarctica and the grounded glaciers are responding to this by accelerating and thinning.  These connections have been emerging in various scientific papers over the past 5 years.  The limitation has been being able to see into the future.  Hellmer’s paper shows how this troubling process could rapidly spread to one of the really large ice shelves.   This is a BIG DEAL because the ocean’s impact on the ice shelves/ice sheets is THE way ice sheets can lose the largest amount of ice in the shortest amount of time.  We understand the climate links, but we know the details well enough.  This work is a large step in the right direction to be able to get credible numbers in the hands of those who will have to decide how to adapt to these changes in the next few decades.

“Once we do, we can model how the ocean and gravity fields adjust. (The redistribution of the water from these large masses of ice melting actually changes the Earth’s shape and its gravity field, as meltwater flows from poles into the ocean and across the globe).

“Once we can model the adjustment of ocean and gravity fields, it is at this point that coastal dwellers at any place on the planet will know whether they will see more than the average, less than the average or the average increase to mean global sea level.  The average rise is likely to be daunting—1 meter by the end of this century is certainly possible, although the first half-century will see “just” ? of this rise with the next 2/3 coming in the latter 50 years. Sea level rise is not constant — the rate of rise accelerates over time due to various positive feedback cycles. And this is just the beginning.  Ice sheets have always shrunk (and sea level has always risen) when the planet warms.  Reversing that trend will take centuries, so we had better prepare for adapting to rising sea level.  We have hardwired it into our long-term future.”

Sea-level rise is coming, and planning for it is already underway, but coastal development across New Zealand relies on sea-level rise projections that are increasingly out-of-step with the latest science. 

Determining how councils and governments should plan for future sea level rise will be the focus of a conference in Wellington this week.

Councils around New Zealand vary greatly in terms of their official estimates of future sea level rise, which are used in property development and coastal planning, and  this week the Ministry for the Environment confirmed to the SMC that it had abandoned plans for National Environmental Standard to get all the councils’ sea level projections in line.

So what are the most up-to-date estimates that New Zealand should be working with?

The Science Media Centre hosted an online briefing for journalists on the science of sea-level rise, featuring keynote speakers from the New Zealand Climate Change Centre’s conference which will take place this Thursday, which will bring local and central government officials together to hear the latest science and discuss planning for sea-level rise. You can listen to the briefing below.

AUDIO

Registered journalists can access speakers slides in the SMC Resource Library.

Briefing Participants:
Dr John Church is CSIRO Fellow and an oceanographer with the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research. He is a leading authority on the role of the ocean in climate change, and a lead author of the Sea level chapter of the next IPCC Assessment Report (AR5).

Prof Bruce Glavovic holds the Earthquake Commission (EQC) Chair in Natural Hazards Planning at Massey University and is Associate Director of the Joint Centre for Disaster Research. His research focuses on building sustainable, hazard-resilient communities.

Doug Ramsay is Manager of NIWA’s Pacific activities and a coastal hazard consultant. He has wide experience in both New Zealand and Pacific region, including projects in Tuvalu, Tonga, Tokelau, Micronesia, Kiribati, Cook Islands and Fiji. With Rob Bell he rewrote the Ministry for the Environment’s 2008 Coastal Hazards and Climate Change: A Guidance Manual for Local Government in New Zealand.

Environment officials say they have no plans to continue creating a National Environmental Standard (NES) for future sea level rise – instead they will leave it up to individual councils to make separate plans.

Though the exact sea level rise over the next few centuries is expected to vary from one region of the world to another — sometimes partly dependent on the latitude of the coastline — it is expected to be similar along all the NZ coast.

The Ministry for the Environment (MfE) was looking at setting a mandatory minimum projected sea level rise which councils would have had to take into account when planning for the effects of future climate change, and said on its website: “We are in the process of identifying information to support the need for the proposed NES on future sea level rise”

But today they told the SMC: “At this stage there are no plans to progress the proposed NES.

“The Minister for the Environment has made it clear that current guidance provides local government with both the information and the flexibility to plan locally for rises in seas levels.

“Local councils are best placed to assess the risk and plan for future sea level rises in their specific areas,” an MfE spokesperson said.

On the MfE website, the ministry had previously said that it wanted to see councils planning for 80cm of rise in sea levels this century, two or three times the level signalled in a Government manual for councils, which suggested a rise of 0.26m to 0.38m by the 2090s relative to the average for 1980–1999.

In outlining the NES, the ministry said that individual councils trying to pick an appropriate sea-level rise projection for their planners could be subject to “constant re-litigation” of whatever numbers they chose.

So its officials were looking at the potential to set a national environmental standard (NES) with which councils would have to comply. This would not only reduce the costs and delays for each coastal authority to pick their own projected level of sea-rise, but reduce the risk of continuing argument over the choice, and allow the levels to be updated as new research becomes available.

Officials wanted to set an NES that prescribes a base amount of future sea-level rise to plan for, and requires councillors to consider the consequences of higher sea-levels.

They planned for the standard to be based on the Ministry for the Environment guidance manual Coastal Hazards and Climate Change: A Guidance Manual for Local Government in New Zealand – setting a base value sea-level rise of 0.5 m relative to the 1980–1999 average, along with an assessment of the potential consequences from a range of possible higher sea-level rise values.

“At the very least, all assessments will consider the consequences of a mean sea-level rise of at least 0.8 m relative to the 1980–1999 average,” the MfE said. Beyond 2100 councils would have been required to allow for sea-level rise of 10 mm a year, every year.

At present, the basic range of sea-level rise projected in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report is a rise of 0.18m–0.59 m by the mid-2090s relative to the average sea level over 1980–1999 – but that did not take into account factors such as meltwater from glaciers and other ice on land.

In its 2008 Coastal Hazards and Climate Change Guidance Manual the MfE said: “all emission scenarios suggest a rise of at least 0.26m to 0.38m by the 2090s relative to the average for 1980–1999”.

But some central and local government agencies are already making provision for higher rates of sea level rise.

Transit New Zealand considers climate change in the planning of major long-life infrastructure such as bridges, culverts, and causeways. The new section of causeway for Auckland’s Upper Harbour Corridor (State Highway 18) was built 0.3 metres higher than the existing causeway – which was then raised to match it – in direct response to predicted sea-level rise.

An MfE summary of its Climate Change Effects and Impacts Assessment also reflected the old IPCC figures: “At least 18–59 cm rise (New Zealand average) between 1990 and 2100”, and warns: “All proposed developments near the coast should be evaluated in terms of expected sea-level rise over this century, as well as other consequential effects such as increased coastal erosion, salt water intrusion into aquifers, and increased flooding”.

The Science Media Centre approached councils for their current planning projections. Here are the responses we received:

Environment Bay of Plenty: “It’s 0.49m in official figures in our regional coastal plan, but it’s an estimate and in practice more recent figures would be used”.

Wellington Regional Council: “We have been using a figure of a 1 metre rise by 2100 … we are currently embarking on a study to check that assumption”.

Wellington City Council: “A base value sea-level rise of 0.5m (relative to the 1980-99 average) by 2100.”

Christchurch City Council: “Half a metre, as per the Ministry guidelines”.

Environment Canterbury: “ECan is not using a figure in terms of future sea-level rise. To do this, we will need to review the Regional Coastal Environment Plan … next year. We do however, operate Coastal Hazard Zones which have rules controlling development in areas likely to disappear into the sea within the next 100 years (based on projections of current erosion rates)”.

Hawke’s Bay Regional Council: “Base sea level rise allowance, up to year 2099, (we) use 0.5 m, and also consider consequences of at least 0.8 m. After 2100, add an additional 10 mm/year.”

Waikato Regional Council: “A minimum of 80 cm above current (sea level)”.

West Coast Regional Council: “No one particular sea level rise estimate is used on consents for rock protection structures protecting the coastal state highway in the coastal marine area. We are undertaking the 10 year review of our Regional Coastal Plan for the West Coast, and are considering adding a policy with sea level rise estimates from MFE’s 2008 “Coastal Hazards and Climate Change: A Guidance Manual for Local Government in New Zealand”, or from a more recent report by NIWA.”

A study by Kiwi and US researchers, published in Tree Physiology, shows that warmer urban nights can increase tree growth.

Native red oak seedlings, planted in Central Park, New York, put on eight times more biomass in one summer, than those planted in close-by suburban and rural areas.

The hypothesis that increased growth was due to warmer night-time temperatures, was then confirmed by controlled laboratory studies.

This ‘urban heat island’ effect is the result of solar energy being absorbed by pavement, buildings and other infrastructure, then radiated back into the air.

With half the human population now living in cities, understanding how nature will interact with urban trees is important. “This shows there are at least certain attributes of the city that are beneficial for trees,” said lead author Dr Stephanie Y. Searle, University of Canterbury.

Co-author, Prof Matthew Turnbull, University of Canterbury, told the SMC that the urban heat island effect may be having an impact on tree development in densely populated areas of New Zealand such as central Auckland.

More information can be found on Columbia University’s Earth Institute website.

Media Coverage:

The Press: City heat makes trees grow

Stuff.co.nz: Trees lap up the city heat

New York Times: On an Urban Heat Island, Zippy Red Oaks