The cable, if completed as planned, would offer our fastest link to the rest of the world and could also herald the end of internet data caps in New Zealand by substantially reducing the cost of international bandwidth available to the country.

The SMC has gathered commentary from industry and science experts on the significance of the proposed new cable, and how it might affect New Zealand’s science and ICT sectors. Additional comments will be added to the SMC website.

Brett O’Riley, CEO of NZICT, comments:

“As New Zealand only has one high-capacity link into the country today, I know major global data centre operators have not considered NZ as a suitable location, despite the fact that we have lower power prices, and greener power, than most of the other countries bidding. But we haven’t had redundant capacity and the low cost structures people are looking for.

“We can see that international prices out of New Zealand are more expensive than our trading partners, and we’ve been advocating for a decrease in those prices and we see competition as being the best lever for that.

“From a science perspective, potential projects like the Square Kilometre Array (SKA) will be generating ‘astronomical’ data sets – it’s estimated the SKA will generate more data in a day than the whole world does in a year, currently.

“So we see this new cable and other planned initiatives as being absolutely essential if New Zealand and Australia are to make a compelling case to host the SKA, and clearly there will be many other spin-offs and opp for the science community from this.

“It will also have an extremely positive impact on the ICT sector, given the improved latency which will enable New Zealand companies to offer software as a service remotely to major economies, and will enable New Zealand to continue its growth as a development shop for other digital economies.”

Dr Vladimir Mencl, e-research services and systems consultant at the University of Canterbury comments:

“The existing KAREN network has solved the problem of connections between research organisations. But because of tight data caps, universities use a cost recovery model for internet access in their commercial operations, often with costs charged back to the home department of the university. As a result off the KAREN network, I will often spend a lot of time looking for alternative ways to download a file more efficiently.

“The KAREN network has been over-built intentionally so there is a lot of capacity for video-conferencing and it offers low-latency services. So I don’t think a new cable would offer much there, there isn’t a great strain on the network. We have international collaborations using the BlueFern supercomputer at Canterbury with other countries including Australia and Canada as well as local research organisatons.

“But KAREN doesn’t really have the model right yet. It doesn’t run purely on a cost-recovery basis, it is still centrally funded by the Government. If cheaper international bandwidth means it is cheaper to run KAREN that’s money that could be saved and diverted to other research projects.”

On the other hand, teenagers who spent more time doing their homework or reading had higher levels of attachment to their parents.

Published in the Archives of Pediatrics & Adolescent Medicine, the research was unable to discover whether screen time drove poorer relationships or vice versa, but noted that the effect was significant: the risk for having a low attachment to their parents increased by 4% for every hour the teens spent in front of the television, and 5% for every hour spent playing on a console/computer.

Overall, more time spent in front of the TV was linked with lower attachment to both peers and parents: every additional hour increased the risk of low attachment by 24% and 13%, respectively.

The SMC is gathering comment from local experts on the issue, with the first comments below.  Further comments will be released on the SMC website.

The paper is available to access in the SMC Resource Library.

Dr, Fran Vertue, lecturer, Department of Psychology, University of Canterbury and practicing clinical psychologist comments:

“From the material supplied to me, it seems that the authors propose a causal relationship between television or computer time and relationships, exploring “how screen time may affect the quality of relationships with family and friends”. They also recommend monitoring of  “the effect that these technologies have on social development and psychological and physical well-being among adolescents”. Causally speaking, these authors suggest that screen time affects personal relationships in a detrimental way. Given that the authors simply report a relationship (or correlation) between two variables (time spent in front of a screen and attachment to others), there is not enough justification to claim a causal relationship between them.

“In addition, it is clearly not simply the amount of time spent away from parents or friends that is associated with poor attachment. The attachment relationships of children who spent lots of time doing homework or reading did not seem to suffer. It may be that the poor relationship with parents in the TV watchers is mediated or moderated by the parents’
disapproval at excessive time in front of a television or computer, rather than the time itself. I could imagine that the more time the child spends in front of a machine, the higher the parents’ disapproval, and more potential for conflict. Conversely, when adolescents were doing things that parents would approve of (e.g. doing homework or reading), their relationships didn’t seem to suffer. It is also well known that adolescents’ relationships with their parents are normatively conflictual, as it is a major developmental task of adolescence to separate from the family of origin in preparation for leaving home, and this task involves conflict to some extent. This also need to be taken into account in any study of adolescents and their relationships with their parents.”

Lisa Cohen, Auckland-based independent clinical psychologist, comments:

“The immediate gratification technologies are indicating a decrease in the ability of adolescents and those people in their twenties to engage in direct verbal communication not only with their peers but also with those in authority.  Entire generations are finding it easier to communicate through some form of technology, thus second hand. This distances them from people and has the potential for some to lose contact or have a decreased grip on reality which can lead to disastrous consequences.  Suicides being the ultimate example of distress and detachment from people who had they known what was happening may have been able to intervene.

“Research shows that attachment to parents and peers is least likely to be decreased when adolescents are using technology that is learning based. Can we therefore say that the circumstances under which adolescents engage in television watching, computer/internet /cell phone usages will directly impact upon the degree of detachment from parents and peers? If they engage in these activities in the presence of others then they are likely to also remain attached to other people whilst having available constant reality checks. In these situations adolescents are less able to create their own world.

“In summary, the short term consequences of screen time and attachment to parents and peers are a less articulate population who may experience differing degrees of direct person to person communication. In the longer term and dependent on the person’s environment and personality we will continue to see and may have an increase in bullying, suicides and homicides due to the adolescent’s withdrawal from human interaction and reality.”

“Wave heights could be larger than what we have currently experienced but within the threat levels and wave height estimates that have been previously forecast,” it said in an update issued at 3pm.

“Strong currents are expected in harbours and restricted waterways. The Chatham Islands and Banks Peninsula could still expect wave heights of between 1 and 3 metres. This represents risks to people in boats and on beaches for coastal communities.”

Euan Smith, Professor of Geophysics, Intsitute of Geophysics, School of Geography, Environment and Earth sciences, Victoria University:

“Three brief comments:

1. This was a really big earthquake. According to USGS would have been 6th largest equal anywhere in the world since 1900.

2. Notwithstanding that comment, such earthquakes are far from rare in Chile. Here is USGS’s list of M > 8 earthquakes in Chile in order of size:

* 1960 05 22 – Chile – M 9.5 -  Fatalities 1,655 (biggest measured earthquake, Euan Smith)

* 1868 08 13 – Arica, Peru (now Chile) – M 9.0 -  Fatalities 25,000

* 2010 02 28 – Concepcion, Chile – M 8.8 > 100 fatalities (my insert)

* 1730 07 08 – Valparasio, Chile – M 8.7

* 1922 11 11 – Chile-Argentina Border – M 8.5

* 1877 05 10 – Offshore Tarapaca, Chile – M 8.3 – Fatalities 34

* 1835 02 20 – Concepcion, Chile – M 8.2 – Fatalities 500 (this earthquake was reported by Charles Darwin)

* 1906 08 17 – Valparaiso, Chile – M 8.2 Fatalities 3,882

* 1943 04 06 – Illapel – Salamanca, Chile – M 8.2 Fatalities 25

3. The Ministry of Civil Defence and Emergency management had an early test of their brand new Tsunami Warning plan, which was released on Tuesday! As far as I can see, the management of the event was very good, centrally and in the regions. And thank you to the media, especially RadioNZ for their excellent coverage.”

Martha Savage, Professor of Geophysics, Victoria University of Wellington comments:

“I would say that this happened to be a very timely tsunami for us, occurring just after new procedures have been put in place for tsunami alerts. The magnitude 8.8 earthquake in Chile is the largest to occur since the Sumatran Boxing Day earthquake in 2004, which created such a devastating tsunami. This earthquake filled in a region that has few small earthquakes but suffers from large events. It is near the region ruptured during the 1960 Chilean earthquake, which was the largest instrumentally recorded earthquake.

“Luckily the tsunami from this earthquake was much smaller than the 2004 event. Moreover, emergency services learned lessons from the previous earthquake and loss of life was much less.

“However, there was still tremendous damage in Chile due to the earthquake itself, and it is important to remember that people living in cities in earthquake prone areas such as the Pacific rim need to be vigilant and to be prepared for disaster to strike. There is a common saying in seismology, that “earthquakes don’t kill people, buildings do”. In particular, building codes need to be adopted and inforced to keep their inhabitants safe. Residents can also do their part by keeping informed and keeping emergency supplies of water and food, and having emergency plans in place.”

Dr Bruce Glavovic, EQC Fellow in Natural Hazards Planning, Associate Director: Joint Centre for Disaster Research, Massey University comments:

“The full consequences of the massive Chilean earthquake are still emerging. But many lives have been lost and livelihoods disrupted, especially for communities in the vicinity of the epicentre.

“The Chilean earthquake and recent Haitian earthquake underscore a vital lesson that must be heeded in New Zealand and other localities prone to earthquakes:

“Disaster risk is a function of the physical threat (eg. the likelihood and magnitude of an earthquake) and social vulnerability. A hazard only turns into a disaster when the affected population is unable to cope with the ‘physical’ event. Socially vulnerable populations – people who may be poor and marginalised – are especially at risk .

“The Haitian earthquake was a significantly lower magnitude event than the Chilean earthquake. But the Haitian population at risk was large, concentrated and socially vulnerable: many living in abject poverty, with low levels of preparedness , poor quality building standards, etc. Hence the devastation of the Haitian earthquake.

“Therefore, in addition to building vitally important pre-event preparedness and response capacity, more attention needs to be focused on reducing the social vulnerability of populations facing natural hazard risks. There is little that can be done to prevent an earthquake occuring. But much can and needs to be done to reduce social vulnerability.

“Disaster risk reduction is therefore chiefly a matter of reducing social vulnerability and must be integrated more effectively into wider efforts to build sustainable community development.

From our colleagues at the AusSMC:

Associate Professor Dale Dominey-Howes is the Co-Director of the Australian Tsunami Research Centre and Natural Hazards Research Laboratory in the School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Science at the University of New South Wales. He is also the Vice Chairman of the Commission on Hazard and Risk for the International Geographical Union. He comments:

“This is the largest earthquake to affect the Pacific ‘Ring of Fire’ region in many years and it has generated a tsunami that has/will travel across the entire Pacific Ocean (a trans-Pacific event).

“The tsunami represent some threat to coastal waters on the east coast of Australia. Whilst large damaging waves are not expected, strong currents and modest waves at the coast could be experienced at some locations. The Australian Tsunami Warning System was activated and has clearly worked well. Individual State Emergency Service tsunami disaster plans have also been activated. However, it is of some concern that television pictures are still showing people swimming at Sydney beaches during the period when the tsunami is forecast to arrive.

“It is clear that either the warning message has failed to reach some people, or that individuals do not understand or appreciate the significance of the warning. This means further work should occur to raise community awareness of the danger posed by tsunamis.”

Civil Defence is issuing regular updates on the tsunami warnings here.

GNS Science is also issuing updates through Geonet and has a useful backgrounder on tsunamis here.

Authoritative info about the earthquake is available from the USGS event page.

Victoria University’s Dr John Townend has put together a graphical presentation on the Chilean earthquake which can be viewed here. John Townsend is available for comment today.Contact the SMC for details.

The tsunami reaches New Zealand just days after Civil Defence updated its tsunami risk assessment which includes an analysis of potential tsunamis originating from South America. The report can be downloaded here.

Dr Bill Fry, Seismologist at GNS Science comments:

“The magnitude 8.8 earthquake that occurred off the coast of Chile resulted from the oceanic Nazca plate being thrust under the South American plate. Since the main shock, there have been numerous large aftershocks with magnitudes greater than 6. Historical seismicity suggests that continued aftershock activity could include events with magnitudes equal to or greater than 7. The earthquake occurred in a region of known stress accumulation between the hypocentres of the great (M 9.5) earthquake of 1960 and the 1922 (M 8.5) earthquake.

“The earthquake generated a tsunami that propagated west-northwestward across the Pacific Ocean. The largest waves aren’t expected to hit New Zealand. However, numerical simulations of effects of the tsunami on New Zealand predict measurable waves with amplitudes of between 0.2 and 1 metre along much of the eastern coast. Variations in the bathymetry around New Zealand lead to amplification of the tsunami around the Chatham Islands and Bank’s Peninsula, and in these areas scientists have predicted maximum wave amplitudes of between 1 and 3 meters.

“This is  based on numerical modelling and historical comparison with an analogous earthquake on the South American coast in 1877. The historical accounts suggest that the largest waves will in many areas arrive between 6 and 12 hours after the initial arrivals, and this is also supported by the numerical modelling.”

Dr John Townend EQC Fellow in Seismic Studies, School of Geography, Environment, and Earth Sciences, Victoria University of Wellington comments:

“The tectonic position of this earthquake was similar to that of the June 2009 Fiordland earthquake:  on the interface between a subducting plate (”slab”) and the over-riding plate.  In the Chilean case, the Nazca plate is being subducted beneath the South American plate.  Subduction zones are commonly the sites of the biggest earthquakes, including the 2004 Boxing Day earthquake in Sumatra.  Chile has seen many very large historic earthquakes, most notably the 1960 magnitude 9.5 one, the largest known earthquake of the last two centuries anywhere in the world.”

The comments below were gathered from scientists in Britain by our colelagues at the Science Media Centre in London. We will issue updates from New Zealand experts as soon as possible.

Dr Brian Baptie, British Geological Survey’s Head of Seismology said:

“This is thelargest earthquake to strike central Chile since a magnitude 6.7 earthquake in 2001. The epicenter lies around 200 km northeast of the magnitude 9.5 earthquake that struck Chile in 1960. This was the largest earthquake ever recorded and resulted in a destructive tsunami that killed many thousands of people around the Pacific.

“A 1.3m tsunami wave was observed at Valparaiso, 200km north of the epicentre about 20 minutes after the earthquake. Tsunami waves in the deep ocean travel about the same speed as a jet plane and would take about 15 hours to reach Hawaii and about 20 hours to reach the other side of the Pacific.”

Dr David Rothery, Dept of Earth & Environmental Sciences at the Open University, said:

“This morning’s (06:34 [UK time]) magnitude 8.8 earthquake close to the Chilean coast has caused a tsunami that is now radiating away from the epicentre and travelling at several hundred km per hour across the Pacific ocean. The first waves are expected ot Hawaii at 11:19 Hawaii Standard Time but are also travelling along the S America coast and will reach Colombia and Costa Rica after 1300 GMT (see http://www.prh.noaa.gov/ptwc/ ) Some earthquake damage is to be expected ashore in Chile near the town of Concepcion.

“A magnitude 8 quake is a rare event. On average there is only about one of these per year, globally. This one was caised by the floor of the Pacific ocean being pushed below South America. Because the epicentre was under the sea, the sudden jerking of the sea-floor displaced water and triggered a tsumani. The focus of this quake was at a depth of about 34 km – which is relatively shallow (and hence damaging) though not quite so shallow as the magnitude 9.1 quake in the Sunda Trench that caused the 26 Dec 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami.”

Dr Roger Musson, British Geological Survey’s Head of Seismic Hazard said:

“This earthquake fills in an identified seismic gap – no previous large earthquake had occurred in this area since 1835, when a large earthquake was observed by Charles Darwin. Since then, an estimated 10m of potential displacement has accumulated.”

Professor Steven Sherwood, Climate Change Research Centre at the University of New South Wales

“The trend on meaningful time-scales has remained upward.  Recent observations remain consistent with mainstream models and theories that predict warming.  A longer period of sustained flat or cooling temperatures would be needed to challenge them.”

Associate Professor Kevin Walsh, Associate Professor of meteorology in the School of Earth Sciences at the University of Melbourne

“It is getting warmer, but not at the same rate everywhere. Take the global average temperature, for instance. The year 1998 was the warmest year to date (because it was a big El Nino year), and if a trend line is calculated starting at 1998 going to 2009, this trend is not statistically significant. But if you take the same trend from 1997 or 1999, the upward temperature trend is statistically significant. And if you take a trend from 1900 to 2009, the upward temperature trend is REALLY statistically significant.”

“Why do I pick 1998? Because it is often said that the lack of a trend since 1998 invalidates the global warming hypothesis. But global warming is a trend superimposed upon natural variability, variability that still exists despite global warming. This means every so often you would expect a spike in the global average arising from natural variability alone, just like the year 1998. It would be MUCH more surprising if the global average temperature just kept on going up, year after year, without some years of slightly cooler temperatures.”

Professor Neville Nicholls, Professorial Fellow in the School of Geography and Environmental Science at Monash University

“The graph below shows global temperatures of the lower atmosphere (just above the Earth’s surface) averaged over November-January each year (ending in November 2009 – January 2010). The data are from Dr Roy Spencer and Dr John Christy (http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc.lt), whose data have been used in the past to suggest that warming has ‘stopped’. As the figure shows, global warming is going strong, despite rumours of its demise. Global temperatures have increased about 0.5C since 1979/80 (satellite data started in 1979). Other data (temperatures over land, sea surface temperatures) show similar warming.”

Dr Paul Beggs, Senior Lecturer in the Division of Environmental and Life Sciences at Macquarie University, NSW

“The message from climate change experts about warming in recent years has been clear and consistent.  Warming of the climate system is unequivocal.  It is getting warmer.”

1) Is the warming of recent years statistically significant compared to other periods of inter-glacial warming? Are we simply seeing a blip, which will be smoothed out to something approaching normal inter-glacial periods or is this the start of something big?

Professor Steven Sherwood, Climate Change Research Centre at the University of New South Wales

“Most studies find that the warming stands out statistically, though this will be contested.  What is more important is that the warming was predicted decades ago based on physical principles, and the predictions came true.  The predicted future warming is much larger, if emissions continue.  We ain’t seen nothing yet.”

2) Some sceptics say there is no evidence of a link between increasing carbon in the atmosphere, and increasing temperatures. Is the link clear?

Professor Steven Sherwood, Climate Change Research Centre at the University of New South Wales

“Yes, satellites can measure the greenhouse effect and its increase over time.  These claims are false.”

Associate Professor Kevin Walsh, Associate Professor of meteorology in the School of Earth Sciences at the University of Melbourne

“If there is no link between increased concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and global warming, then we don’t understand physics that has been used successfully in other scientific fields since the nineteenth century. There has to be a link. The controversy is about the size of the effect, not whether it exists or not.”

Professor Neville Nicholls, Professorial Fellow in the School of Geography and Environmental Science at Monash University, Melbourne

“Confidence in the reality of the link between carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and warming comes from three sources:

1.     Laboratory experiments 150 years ago (and repeated many times since – you can even see a demonstration on YouTube) show that carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas and that increasing its concentration will lead to warming unless other processes (a weakening sun, or massive volcanoes, or dust from an asteroid hitting the earth) offset this warming.

2.     Predictions of the amount of warming expected from the likely increases in carbon dioxide have been made since at least 1959 (the 1959 prediction was published in Scientific American at the time). These predictions were initially done without the use of climate models, and were just based on physics. By the early 1970s, warming (up to the end of the 20^th century) was being accurately  predicted in journals such as Nature, using the climate models available at that time.  Better models were used in 1988 to make predictions of warming, again proving quite accurate. Successful prediction is the standard technique that scientists use to confirm their understanding of a process. The success of repeated predictions (made over 50 years) of warming confirm our understanding of the physics of the greenhouse effect.

3. In recent decades, a large number of more sophisticated climate models that take account of a wider range of climate mechanisms, and do a better job of simulating atmospheric behaviour, have been shown to reproduce the observed 20^th century warming and cooling episodes when they use anthropogenic influences (including greenhouse gas increases) but cannot reproduce the observed temperature behaviour if only natural processes (solar variations and volcanoes) are included in the model. Some of the variations in the Earth’s climate in previous ages were caused by changes in the amount of energy received from the Sun. But satellite observations show that there has not been a trend to more heating from the Sun over recent decades, so the Sun has not caused the warming of the past 50 years.”

Dr Paul Beggs, Senior Lecturer in the Division of Environmental and Life Sciences at Macquarie University, NSW

“The sceptics are wrong.  There is considerable evidence of a link between the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere and the observed increase in global average temperatures.  The link is clear.”

3) With the recent attacks on the IPCC reports, can we trust the science and the scientists? Can peer review be trusted?

Professor Steven Sherwood, Climate Change Research Centre at the University of New South Wales

“This event has been horribly overblown.  The unfounded claims that have caused the controversy were so minor, they were not even mentioned in the report’s Executive Summary.  The executive summaries are vetted very very thoroughly, could not have errors of this kind, and contain all the findings of importance to policymakers.  The bowels of the text, where errors have been found, are not vetted very well (especially in the WG II and III reports) and IPCC needs to address this.

It is worth pointing out that the sin of the IPCC–publishing a prediction with no scientific foundation–is one that contrarians do every time they say we have nothing to worry about.”

Associate Professor Kevin Walsh, Associate Professor of Meteorology in the School of Earth Sciences at the University of Melbourne

“I’m assuming that most will understand the process of peer review, but maybe not, so I’ll just briefly describe it. A “peer” is someone who is an expert in the field of the work being evaluated, or who is an expert in a closely related scientific field. Often, they will be scientific competitors of the scientists whose work is being evaluated. Sometimes, the reviewer may be deeply sceptical about the topic of the work being assessed. So peer review is certainly not a self-congratulation society of like-minded scientists. On the other hand, though, even rigorous peer review can let things slip through, or assess work incompletely. It’s not surprising, therefore, that in the several thousand pages of the IPCC reports, a few problems have been found with the review process.

“Can peer review be trusted? I guess the next question is what is the alternative? Review by non-peers, or in other words by non-experts? This does not seem like a viable alternative. There will always be some issues with any review process. But peer review is the best process that we have come up with so far to perform quality control on scientific publications.”

Professor Neville Nicholls, Professorial Fellow in the School of Geography and Environmental Science at Monash University, Melbourne

“In 2009 there were 7,541 peer-reviewed scientific papers published in the peer-reviewed literature with the topic of ‘global warming’ or ‘greenhouse effect’ or ‘climate change’. With such a large number of papers there must be some that are incorrect. But the large number indicates that this is a very busy field, and such a busy field should ensure that most of the work published is checked by many other scientists.

“All those journal papers have been reviewed by 2-3 other scientists, prior to their publication. The IPCC then assesses this mountain of published scientific literature. The Fourth Assessment cites over 10,000 papers from the scientific literature, most of which have already been through the peer-review process to get into the scientific literature. The IPCC reports themselves are subjected to four reviews, over a 2-3 year period. The IPCC Fourth Assessment received about 90,000 comments from about 2,500 reviewers. The review comments are publicly available, as are the responses of the authors. So, any errors made by the authors in response to the reviewer comments should be found pretty quickly. It is hard to conceive of a more comprehensive and transparent process than that used by the IPCC.

“Once the IPCC reports themselves are completed, there is another process of review to prepare and revise summaries of the reports. Every sentence in these summaries is discussed and argued about (and finally agreed by consensus – not a vote) by scientists and representatives from more than 130 governments (and many of these government representatives are also scientists).  It is hard to imagine any process of assessing a complex subject that would be subject to more comprehensive debate and review.”

Dr Paul Beggs, Senior Lecturer in the Division of Environmental and Life Sciences at Macquarie University, NSW

“Peer review can certainly be trusted, particularly the IPCC peer review process which is arguably the most rigorous and transparent peer review process in the history of science.  Similarly, of course we can trust the science and scientists.  Asking if we can trust the science and the scientists is like asking if we can trust medicine and the doctors.  Just like we consult a doctor when we are unwell, we must trust and accept the consensus of the world’s climate change experts as clearly presented in the IPCC’s most recent Assessment Report (published in 2007, the year it was jointly awarded the Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore).”

4) My sense is that earth’s carbon cycle is very poorly understood, the link between atmospheric, marine and terrestrial sinks. Much focus has been on the atmosphere – but is the real carbon action is in the world’s oceans?

Professor Steven Sherwood, Climate Change Research Centre at the University of New South Wales

“If I began pumping carbon monoxide into your office, and an alarm soon went off indicating CO levels were rising toward dangerous levels, would you dismiss concerns on the basis that there is much more CO in the global atmosphere than in your office and that you don’t fully understand the building’s air handling system?

“This is a slight of hand to distract the public from the clear facts that carbon dioxide rises are unequivocally due to fossil fuel burning (plus a few smaller sources).  It sounds inspired by Ian Plimer’s book.  His arguments rest on false assertions (which he continues to refuse to recant) and a willingness to ignore the most crucial evidence and arguments.  His assertion that we don’t know why CO2 levels are rising or that is natural is preposterous and easily disproved.”

5) The sceptics say rainfall has not reduced in the Murray Darling Basin. What is the true story and how strong is the link with climate change?

Professor Steven Sherwood, Climate Change Research Centre at the University of New South Wales

“The sceptics here are (for once) technically correct, in that there is no proven link–yet– between Murray-Darling drought and climate change.  BUT…(a) there are good reasons to expect most of Australia to gradually dry due to warming, regardless of any particular drought happening right now; (b) the severe droughts in southern Victoria and southwest Australia have been more firmly attributed to global warming; and (c) temperatures everywhere, including the Murray-Darling, are rising which increases the need for rainfall.  Thus drought is worsening even though rain isn’t decreasing (because it isn’t increasing enough).”

Professor Neville Nicholls, Professorial Fellow in the School of Geography and Environmental Science at Monash University, Melbourne

“Annual MDB rainfall in each of the last nine years has been below 500mm (you can find these data at the Bureau of Meteorology’s web page). Prior to this dry period, the longest run of years below 500mm, since we have had decent data (starting in 1900), was six years (1925-1930). So, the current dry period is 50% longer than the previous record dry period. But this current dry period might still be just a fluke, or natural variability. We cannot confidently attribute it to global warming.”

6) What is the link between extreme weather and climate change? Sceptics say the link is weak and unproven.

Professor Steven Sherwood, Climate Change Research Centre at the University of New South Wales

“For some extremes this is true, but there is little doubt that a warmer climate will bring more extreme heat waves, and heavier downpours in areas that still receive ample rain.  These things are being observed.  We also expect more frequent and severe droughts, which is also being observed.”

Associate Professor Kevin Walsh, Associate Professor of meteorology in the School of Earth Sciences at the University of Melbourne

“The link is weak,  but not necessarily unproven. I say it is weak because, so far, there is little indication of detectable trends in extreme weather events that can be tied directly to the warming that has occurred to date. One exception, of course, is increases in extreme high temperatures, which have been demonstrated in some regions of the globe to be associated with climate change trends. But for other phenomena such as tropical cyclones, trends have not been unambiguously associated with global warming. On the other hand, climate predictions suggest that we should start to see trends in some of these other phenomena, but probably not until later this century.”

Professor Neville Nicholls, Professorial Fellow in the School of Geography and Environmental Science at Monash University, Melbourne

“Hot extremes (hot days and nights, and heat waves) over much of the world have increased as the world has warmed over the past 50 years, while cold events (cold days, cold nights) have decreased in frequency and intensity. The link between these changes in extremes and global warming is very clear. Linking global warming and other types of extremes is more complicated. Some extremes (tornadoes, strong winds) are not monitored well enough to determine if they are changing. Some (tropical cyclones) are not modeled sufficiently well to make confident predictions of changes, or to understand the causes of changes. Some extremes (droughts, heavy rains) have been changing in different ways in different regions, so it is hard to make a global assessment. All the above issues are discussed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment reports.”

7) With so much uncertainty, what can we be sure about? There must be unknowns/missing links/things science is not so sure about. What are they?

Professor Steven Sherwood, Climate Change Research Centre at the University of New South Wales

“Relatively few things are certain, but these things should compel people to action. They are: (a) human activities (mainly fossil fuel burning) are increasing greenhouse gas levels, (b) increased greenhouse gas levels have a warming effect, and (c) we are observing warming at the rate calculated from this effect.  None of this is contestable.”

Associate Professor Kevin Walsh, Associate Professor of meteorology in the School of Earth Sciences at the University of Melbourne

“If we wait until we have absolute certainty on all aspects of this topic before acting, we will never act. People in their daily and professional lives make decisions all the time without being absolutely certain about the consequences. Regarding uncertainty: most scientists – and not just most climate scientists, most scientists in general – are pretty certain that the observed global warming over the past 100 years is due to man-made greenhouse gases, and have been for some time. But it seems very difficult to get this message across to the public. One reason is that it is much harder to figure out what the effect of global warming will be at the local level, for example, what will be the average rainfall in the Murray-Darling basin in 2050. It’s harder because calculations involving rainfall are harder to do, since some of the processes involved are not as well understood as they should be, and so the uncertainty is greater. We are dealing here with likelihood and risk management, not certainty. The important thing for scientists (and journalists) is to clearly convey an appreciation of the likelihood of a particular prediction, which will range from almost certain (e.g. that the global temperature will continue to increase, although not always every year) to predictions of much lower certainty. But some predictions ARE certain enough for action to be taken, and it has – like restrictions on the building of new structures close to the coast due to predicted sea level rise, for instance. The only way to reduce uncertainty is with better science.”

Dr Paul Beggs, Senior Lecturer in the Division of Environmental and Life Sciences at Macquarie University

“There is, of course, some uncertainty regarding some aspects of climate change, but we can be sure about many things.  I think the public is being underestimated if the media or anyone else thinks it will only act if it has certainty on this issue.  The public acts without certainly all the time.  Many people are already acting on climate change.  While the research on climate change must continue, I look forward to much more community discussion of the many responses to climate change.”

8) How much credence do we give to the central plank of Monckton’s argument that spending loads on cutting carbon will have basically sod all impact on restraining temperature rise?

Professor Steven Sherwood, Climate Change Research Centre at the University of New South Wales

“Monckton has no credibility on this issue and is peddling snake oil. It is true that meaningful reduction will not be easy, but economic studies show that half the job can be accomplished at zero net cost.  It just requires changing habits and standing up to some special interest groups.”

9) We hear a lot about the difference between ‘weather’ and ‘climate’, but where do climatologists tend to draw the line? How significant is it, for example, if a given region of Australia were to suffer both its hottest and its driest summer (Dec-Feb) this year? Would that be considered a solid AGW signal or does three months still count as ‘weather’ not ‘climate’?

Professor Steven Sherwood, Climate Change Research Centre at the University of New South Wales

“That would count as weather, not climate. The real question in science is whether observations are consistent with different hypotheses.  The snowstorms in Europe and the US, for example, are fully consistent with greenhouse warming predictions: less than one degree of warming will not put an end to snowstorms!  The only evidence that matters is that which would be inconsistent with one argument or the other.  The observed global warming, and its geographic pattern, is inconsistent with the notion that greenhouse gases have no effect on climate and has been shown so in many independent, peer-reviewed studies.”

Professor Neville Nicholls, Professorial Fellow in the School of Geography and Environmental Science at Monash University, Melbourne

“As the IPCC Fourth Assessment says very clearly, a single extreme event cannot be attributed to global warming (or any other cause). This is the case whether we are talking about a single storm or a single hot summer. But a consistent string of extreme events of the same type – such as the run of unprecedented heat waves that have hit Australia in the past few years – starts to look a lot more like climate change, and less like a fluke.”

10) What greenhouse gas cuts need to be made and by when to achieve certain temperature-rise limits (i.e. of 2 degrees) and to minimise the impact of climate change?

Professor Steven Sherwood, Climate Change Research Centre at the University of New South Wales

“We can predict temperature rises over the long term to about a factor of 2, which isn’t great and means we are dealing here with probabilities.  To have a decent chance of avoiding an eventual 2C rise would require that future emissions be roughly equal to all past emissions.  This would require emissions to peak in the next decade or so and then decline almost as fast as they rose over the 20th century.”

Since then, an official enquiry has been launched to look into the issue, and our colleagues at the UK SMC gathered comment from UK experts on the subject.

Professor Robert A. Spicer, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at the Open University, said:

“Whatever the inquiry finds, we must not lose site of the fact that the UEA data set is just one among many that demonstrate the fact that the overall global average temperature is rising and that greenhouse gas concentrations are now higher than anything seen before in human history.  This is something to be deeply concerned about.

“I am often asked if I ‘believe in global warming’ as if the topic were a religion.  It is not a case of belief, it is a case of evaluating evidence and the evidence is overwhelming that warming is happening at an alarming rate.

“Some people may choose to deny the collective work of thousands of researchers around the world in order to promote their own agendas, but this does not change the facts of basic physics and an abundance of observation.  Climate change will not go away if we choose to ignore it.  At some point large numbers of people will suffer through lack of collective action, and at least when that happens my conscience will be clear.

“Regarding the IPCC, yes some avoidable errors have been made, but again this does not negate the vast majority of the data.  After all the IPCC merely collates and distils data, it does not make the observations itself.  If anything the need for consensus, and the reliance on climate models that are inherently anchored in the present and therefore conservative, suggest the IPCC predictions are likely to underestimate the degree of future change.  The future is likely to offer far more possibilities for economic social and political instability, driven by climate change, than most people realise.”

Bob Ward, policy and communications director at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at London School of Economics and Political Science, said:

“The terms of reference for the independent review are clear, the proposed work plan looks thorough, and the members of the Review team have both authority and credibility.  The main challenge for the Review team is to carry out a rigorous investigation while still being able to publish their results in a timely manner.  It is now almost three months since the emails appeared on the web, and many people have already had access to them and read about them in the media and on blogs.  Many people will have already made their own interpretations about what they show.  In particular, some commentators have already taken on the role of judge and jury, pronouncing on the guilt of those involved and calling for their resignations.  The Review team need to be fair to all concerned, but they may ultimately have difficulty persuading people to accept a verdict that does not match the conclusions that many people have already reached themselves.”

An excerpt from the Editor’s summary of the research:

“Climatologists use model-based ’scenarios’ to provide plausible descriptions of how the future might unfold when evaluating uncertainty about the effects of human actions on climate. The traditional method of establishing these scenarios was a time-consuming sequential process, each discipline taking turns to add data and complexity. … These ‘next generation’ scenarios should make for faster, more rigorous assessment of proposals for climate mitigation and adaptation.”

The SMC asked Prof Martin Manning to explain the work and it’s significance. He prepared the following background Q & A:

“The Next Generation of Scenarios for Climate Change Research and Assessment”, Richard Moss et al, Nature, 11 February 2010.

Questions & Answers

1. What are scenarios?

Scenarios are possible pathways into the future that can be used as a basis for detailed analysis of what could happen, and they have been used over many years for both military planning and by Shell and others for industrial planning. They need to cover a broad range of what may happen for the things that we can’t make definite predictions about. Scenarios have become the key for studying how climate change may evolve in the future because future emissions of greenhouse gases are not simply predictable. That is also why future climate changes generated from scientific analysis and computer models are called projections, not predictions

2. Climate science already has scenarios, why set up some more ones?

Detailed scenarios that have been used in climate science for more than twenty years have covered a range of things that could happen if the world’s development was not strongly influenced by attempts to reduce climate change. The new scenarios now cover detailed analyses of the rates at which current increases in greenhouse gas emissions might be turned around if climate becomes a key factor in technological development and social response.

3. Why do these scenarios need to be detailed?

The science of climate change has to cover a broad range of issues going from the changes in weather patterns and ice sheets to the full range of responses in biological systems around the world. We also need to be able to consider the social and economic implications of these changes. A simple global scenario can be useful, but much more detailed ones are more relevant for specific regions, like New Zealand, and can provide a closely coordinated way of considering all the different factors.

4. What is the parallel process now being planned?

Research into the effects of climate change has considered: the range of future technological changes for greenhouse gas emissions, then the effects on the atmosphere and climate, and then the responses for natural and human systems. This has taken many years to develop a consistent analysis across all the science areas. The new parallel process has been developed over the last four years, by experts in all the relevant areas, so as to set up a framework in which the ongoing research can now be kept closely consistent across all of the areas involved.

5. So how does this help people who aren’t scientists?

Governments agreed in 1992 that they should stabilise the increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous interference with the climate system. The new scenarios provide the basis for very detailed consideration of the implications of stabilisation at different levels. The lowest scenario will provide a more detailed analysis of how to keep global warming to 2°C, which is widely supported by governments, but it already shows that much more rapid uptake of new technology is needed than is occurring so far.

The SMC also approached  scientists for comments on the proposed climate scenarios:

Dr Andy Reisinger, Senior Research Fellow, NZ Climate Change Research Institute, VUW comments:

“The new set of scenarios reflect many years of work and will provide the basis for much of climate change research over the next decade. The scenarios represent a wide range of alternative futures and will help researchers explore many interconnected “what-if?” questions that link environmental with social, technological and economic outcomes. Such an approach, which has a strong tradition in climate science, is essential if we want to reflect adequately the very real choices that human society has to make with regard to climate change and its implications.”

Dr James Renwick, Principal Scientist NIWA National Climate Centre, comments:

The “RCP” approach is a significant step forward in the quest to improve our vision of the future, especially the effects of climate changes upon natural systems and humanity. Not only is the new approach more efficient in terms of gaining new understanding, it also takes explicit account of possible mitigation strategies (political action), something that was not taken account of in the previous generation of (SRES) scenarios. The RCPs are an excellent result from years of hard work.”

In response to intensifying calls for reform of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), five influential climatologists have stepped forward with their views on what ought to be done.

Their suggestions, in an Opinions article in today’s edition of the journal Nature, range from reaffirming the current structure with an emphasis on best practise, or streamlining the process, to scrapping the IPCC entirely in favour of an International Climate Agency or even a Wikipedia-style repository of climate research.

Alongside these views, Nature features a proposal for the next generation of climate scenarios for projecting future change. This paper, which is the culmination of four years of work by IPCC scientists, is co-authored by Prof Marting Manning of Victoria University of Wellington. More information is available on our website, including a Q & A on the research’s implications and comments gathered by the SMC.

The SMC has asked NZ climate scientists to weigh in with their perspectives on the recent crisis of confidence in climate research, and proposals for reform of the IPCC.

Dr Glenn McGregor, Director, School of Environment, University of Auckland, comments:

“Recently the IPCC has come under attack for purportedly a shoddy approach to the scientific assessment process associated with the impacts of projected climate change. Consequently there have been calls for disbanding the IPCC and starting over with a new structure. This is a knee jerk reaction to a perception that the IPCC process is “broken” and needs “fixing”.

“Admittedly there has been a slip up in the review process relating to the inclusion in the IPCC fourth assessment of a statement from a non-peer reviewed document on the future of Himalayan glaciers. Importantly though, few involved with the IPCC are denying this was an oversight.

“However when placed in the context of the hundreds of papers cited in the IPCC reports the Himalayan glacier paper and the subsequent vitriol it has generated is a classic case of making a mountain out of a molehill. It is also a clear demonstration of the opportunism practiced by the various communities that conveniently ignore the balanced assessment of the literature on the science of climate change and its associated impacts that is presented in the IPCC reports.

“Rather than “fixing” the IPCC, what is required is some critical reflection by the facilitators of the IPCC process on why “the Himalayan glacier paper” made its way into the WGII report of the Fourth Assessment.

“In my view the IPCC review process exceeds in its level of stringency anything associated with the publication of books and articles in peer-reviewed journals. Unfortunately the scale of damaged exacted on the IPCC is not commensurate with the associated event. However I am confident that the IPCC process is sound, will stand the test of time and importantly continue to deliver balanced and policy relevant treatments of extremely complicated issues related to climate change.”

Dr Andy Reisinger, Senior Research Fellow, NZ Climate Change Research Institute, VUW comments:

“Discussions about the future of the IPCC inevitably make me think of the remark by Winston Churchill: “democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others that have been tried from time to time”. A careful look at possible revisions and alternatives to the IPCC is always useful, but we need to keep in mind that any changes would have to demonstrably improve the outcomes that society needs from this process.

“I assume that we continue to need an independent, authoritative assessment of the scientific evidence and projections of future climate change and its impacts and response options, and one that is taken seriously by governments around the world. This suggests that such a science assessment has to be carried out by leading experts and active researchers regardless of their personal views; the writing process needs to be carried out free from the direct influence of governments or other pressure groups; its authors need to cover a wide range of fields and expertise and also represent a geographical balance to avoid capture by regional interests; and its outputs need to undergo thorough, multiple and open peer-review to ensure a wide range of scientific perspectives can be captured.

“Funny enough, these are all qualities that the IPCC at least aspires to and, in most cases, meets. Any changes to this approach need to demonstrate how they will keep all these positive qualities and reliably improve upon them, rather than just try something different.

“Nonetheless, the IPCC is not a machine but a human enterprise, and as such it would be surprising if it did not make occasional mistakes. The widely quoted erroneous statement about the rates at which Himalayan glaciers are likely to disappear is a very clear and serious mistake. But it is also clear that this mistake could have been avoided if all people involved in the process (which includes the thousands of reviewers that had access to and provided comments on drafts of the report) had meticulously followed the existing guidelines.

“Asking for wholesale revision to the IPCC in the wake of this mistake appears to be throwing out the baby with the bathwater, and dismantling the bath tub as well, when all it needed was a reminder to clean behind the ears.”

Dr James Renwick, Principal Scientist NIWA National Climate Centre, comments:

“As noted by Tom Stocker [one of the five contributors to the  Nature article], the current structure of the IPCC has all the key elements required: breadth, transparency, independence, and a high level of authority and relevance to policy-makers.

“Errors that have been highlighted recently came about from less than strict adherence to the principle of the IPCC process. We learn from our mistakes, and I am certain that the review process for the 5th Assessment Report will be that much more rigorous because of the slips that have come to light in the AR4.

“However, 99.9% of the AR4 remains valid, and valuable, and it would be foolish to scrap a process that works so well. We can no doubt make better use of the internet (as suggested by John Christy), but the reports of the IPCC must remain authoritative.”

Dr Jim Salinger, an Auckland-based climate scientist, comments:

“IPCC reports have been an exhaustive wealth of information, and go through a very thorough review process. However it is time to evolve these. For example, some of the IPCC 4th Assessment Report science was dated for the Copenhagen COP, so I agree with more frequent and shorter updates so that policy decisions can be made on the most recent science. As well, special updates on where there has been significant scientific developments, such as sea level should occur.”

Prof Martin Manning, NZ Climate Change Research Institute, Victoria University, comments:

“The comments on recent criticisms of the IPCC assessment of climate change science, by five different scientists in this week’s Nature journal, range from saying that the current process needs to be refined somewhat, to it being trimmed back, or essentially closed down.

“But a key issue seems to be overlooked. The mistakes identified in the report by IPCC Working Group 2 have not propagated into the Summary for Policymakers that becomes approved by governments and then used as the basis for global policy responses to global warming.

“Definitely, the underlying IPCC report should not have mistakes. The current process tries to deal with that by setting up two rounds of open reviews by experts all over the world. All the review comments and the author responses are a matter of public record and the detailed issues now being dug up were not raised in those two rounds of review. Why?

“Clearly the IPCC needs a tighter process for checking its draft reports in future and setting up quite independent groups of top experts to undertake detailed reviews would improve things.

“However, the key point is that the IPCC is designed to deliver information on climate change to governments. So it would make sense to have a quick and independent review of the IPCC process, by the UN or another international body strongly regarded by policymakers.”

Professor Peter Barrett, Antarctic Research Centre and Climate Change Research Institute, Victoria University, comments:

“The seminal commentary comes from Thomas Stocker, who reminds the reader that IPCC has an established set of principles that have led to the timely publication of four assessment reports. These have successfully meeting its mandate for summarising policy-relevant climate change science and well-considered consequences. Its past findings are proving to have been if anything conservative. The other four commentaries all propose alternative approaches but fail to acknowledge the practical difficulties and time required in developing a credible international organisation that will deliver a better-considered assessment than one following IPCC procedures.

“I find one comment in particular difficult to understand, that of Eduardo Zorita who states that “its undefined structure puts it at the mercy of pressure from advocates.” This seems to deny the existence of the structure and procedures established in 1988 and developed further over two decades (available along with the Assessment reports on the IPCC website).

“To me the way forward is clear – to continue to pursue the best possible science, with data openly available, for assessment at regular intervals, and to communicate results in the clearest possible language both to colleagues and the public.”

Further Information

To talk to any of the experts quoted above contact the Science Media Centre on tel: 04 499 5476 or email: smc@sciencemediacentre.co.nz.

Notes to Editors

The Science Media Centre (SMC) is an independent source of expert comment and information for journalists covering science and technology in New Zealand. Our aim is to promote accurate, bias-free reporting on science and technology by helping the media work more closely with the scientific community. The SMC is an independent centre established by the Royal Society of New Zealand with funding from the Ministry of Research, Science and Technology. The views expressed in this Science Alert are those of the individuals and organisations indicated and do not reflect the views of the SMC or its employees. For further information about the centre, or to offer feedback, please email us at smc@sciencemediacentre.co.nz.

An article in the New Zealand Herald yesterday certainly suggests this is the case. The article, which reports on a study published in the Journal of Applied Physiology, states, “Millions of people who strive to keep fit by jogging, swimming or going to the gym are wasting their time.”

The authors of the study referred to by the New Zealand Herald, Professor James Timmons and Professor Claude Bouchard, investigated the effect of endurance training on molecular capacity and found that around 20% of subjects failed to improve aerobic capacity with intense endurance training, while around 30% did not enhance their insulin sensitivity.

But does this mean we are wasting our time trying to get fit?

We contacted the lead author of the paper, Professor Jamie Timmons, from the University of London, to his views on media coverage of his research. He responded,

“We are not agreeing with the headlines that are being used. Most articles then go on to quote us accurately though – if we can produce reliable tests, then we can provide better advice.”

He went on to comment, “We are definitely saying that there is potential for genetic testing to predict the best combination of diet, exercise and pharmacology for different people.”

John Tulloch, spokesperson for Sport & Recreation New Zealand (SPARC) also sent us his comments,

“The focus of this research is very narrow and we should be careful not to draw such wide conclusions. Aerobic fitness is only one aspect of the many benefits of physical activity. Many people find activity to be fun and sociable, for example many activities involve engagement with the community and local sports clubs, and provide the opportunity to enjoy the great New Zealand outdoors.

“The Active New Zealand survey 2007-08 showed that 80% of adult New Zealanders were involved in some sort of active sport and recreation activity. Of those surveyed, almost 50% achieved the recommendation of at least 30 minutes of activity five times a week, and a further 39% recorded some activity. Just 13% were inactive.

“Activity is also important for children, and SPARC are encouraging pre-school children to engage in active movement, and primary and secondary schools to promote activity to children, which will motivate them to stay active as adults.

“Improved health is one obvious by-product of increased activity, but we shouldn’t forget the many other benefits and people certainly shouldn’t abandon physical activity on the basis of this single narrow study.”

Further Information

To talk to any of the experts quoted above contact the Science Media Centre on tel: 04 499 5476 or email: smc@sciencemediacentre.co.nz.

Notes to Editors

The Science Media Centre (SMC) is an independent source of expert comment and information for journalists covering science and technology in New Zealand. Our aim is to promote accurate, bias-free reporting on science and technology by helping the media work more closely with the scientific community. The SMC is an independent centre established by the Royal Society of New Zealand with funding from the Ministry of Research, Science and Technology. The views expressed in this Science Alert are those of the individuals and organisations indicated and do not reflect the views of the SMC or its employees. For further information about the centre, or to offer feedback, please email us at smc@sciencemediacentre.co.nz.

Roebel winding of an HTS cable

This week, the 18th International Superconductivity Industry Summit (ISIS-18) will take place in Wellington.  The Summit brings together various companies – both local and international – involved in the commercialisation of high temperature superconductors: a technology with implications for power generation, electronics, and mass transportation, and in which New Zealand has significant involvement.

Superconductivity has been with us for a century.  When cooled to only a few degrees about absolute zero, certain metals become superconductive – that is, they have no electrical resistance, and no internal magnetic field.  This property of metals is used to construct superconducting magnets – some of the most powerful types of electromagnet known. Well known examples of such magnets include MRI and NMR machines, and some of the magnets used in particle accelerators.

In the last 20 years, however, scientists have begun developing a new kind of superconductor – whereas the traditional ‘low temperature’ (LTS) type need to be at temperatures of -270 C and cooled with liquid helium, new ‘high temperature’ superconductors (HTS) can conduct at (a relatively high) -200 C with the aid of liquid nitrogen.

The advance has caused a great deal of excitement due to the potential for increased efficiency in electricity/power transmission, improvement of mass transportation motors (with many benefits), and improved communications.

In addition, New Zealand has been at the forefront of the technology’s development, and New Zealand companies involved in its commercialisation could potentially become powerful export earners for New Zealand.

For more background, see this Sciblogs post by Dr Shaun Hendy.

The SMC spoke to some of those involved in the conference, and gathered their comment on the implications of HTS and what it means for New Zealand.  (Registered journalists can access images in the SMC Resource Library)

Alan Lauder¹ ,  Executive Director of the Coalition for the Commercial Application of Superconductors (US industry body), and chair of the International Superconductivity Industry Summit, comments:

How close are we to being able to employ high temperature superconductor technology in power generation and transmission, and what kind of efficiency and environmental gains can this be expected to result in?

“There is an increasing worldwide demand for more electricity as it is a clean source of power and instantly available by throwing a switch.  In addition to increasing need for additional generation sites there is also an underlying requirement to transport the power from remote location where the power plants, wind, solar, nuclear, natural gas or coal, would be located to the major load locations, typically cities, where the power is consumed.

“Most power grids around the world are stretched to the limit (hence occasional blackouts) already and will not be able to accommodate the additional demand, which is projected to increase by 50% by 2030.  Hence the need for a new option in long haul transmission that is environmentally and aesthetically attractive and brings major efficiency improvements and resiliency to the grid.

“There have been two dozen demonstrations of HTS cable used in the normal alternating (AC) current power supplies and several of these demonstrations have been actual insertions of short (up to 600 meters) lengths into the grid at transmission level voltages (12.5 to 138kV).  Transmission operates at much higher power.  An HTS direct current (DC) cable for transmission would have an efficiency advantage of 2-10% versus conventional overhead high voltage power lines.

“Additionally, the HTS cables would be underground, eliminating the large towers that currently carry the cable and because it is DC there would be no magnetic field generated and hence no electromagnetic (em) radiation. And under direct current (DC) operation the resistance of a superconductor is absolutely zero.  If you started a current flowing in a loop of superconductor, it would literally continue to flow for ever.

“For major construction of long (1000s of miles) of HTS DC transmission cable to begin, it would take at least 15 years to complete validation testing and put manufacturing in place.  Also, wind turbines are high and heavy.  Replacing much of the motor mechanism with HTS components would reduce the size and weight by about 50%, thereby allowing more power to be generated and increasing efficiency.”

What kind of benefits can we expect with HTS in future in mass transport systems that utilise superconductivity?

“Rail transportation systems are already electrified in most parts of the world.  Japan is looking at running HTS cable alongside the tracks to provide the electric power.  HTS magnets could also be used to levitate trains and this too is being pursued.  Savings in motor size and weight from HTS is typically about 50%.

“Likewise, ships are moving to electric drive and HTS is of considerable interest as major reductions in size and weight translate into more storage space for passengers or cargo.  HTS drive motors also result in much higher efficiency, greater fuel economy, longer cruising range, quieter and less vibration operation.   A large, 49,000HP, ship drive motor for a navy ship is built and awaiting installation and testing in Philadelphia.

“These rail and ship advances could be commercialized now.  And, of course, if we ever get rechargeable batteries to power cars that brings us back to the electric power grid needs.”

How will HTS be applied to the electronics industry?

“HTS is used in the electronics industry already.  About 6,000 mobile phone base stations are equipped with HTS filters that dramatically improve performance.  Other electronic applications in communications and radar have been demonstrated to be vastly superior technically.  And low temperature superconductors (LTS) have many commercial applications – MRI and NMR and big science projects, accelerators and colliders, would and could not exist without superconductivity (LTS).

“All these advantages do not come for free.  For most applications the current cost of HTS wire is too high and HTS must be cooled with expensive cryogenics.  It is, however, only 21 years since the discovery of HTS and true manufacturing facilities have not been built because there is little commercial demand.”

How close are we to understanding the fundamental physics of superconductivity, and why has this proven so elusive? What will a more full understanding of the underlying processes allow us to do eventually?

“Finally, the understanding of the fundamental physics underpinning high temperature superconductivity is an enormously challenging task.  The grail in this specific field would be the ability to predict superconducting systems, including operation at room temperature, which would eliminate the need for cryogenics in applications.”

Simon Arnold, acting CEO and management board member of the NZ HTS Industry Association, comments:

“The International Superconductivity Industry Summit (ISIS) ² is the international industry body for commercial users of superconductivity.  The main ISIS meeting covers a review by participant organizations of the status of commercialization activity in their region.  The agenda covers the four main market areas for superconductivity: the wire itself; electronics; magnets; and power system equipment.”

What is the difference between high- and low temperature superconductors?

“LTS is a mature technology underpinning a multi-billion industry in MRI body scanners and higher resolution NMR.

“Products based on HTS are just entering market now, and because of HTS’s much higher operating temperatures products based on them are much less demanding in terms of their working environment.  This not only offers the potential for greater flexibility for products currently based on LTS, it opens up the use of superconductors to improve large scale power systems equipment.  This is potentially a very large market and simply isn’t a possibility using LTS.

“However, despite their advantages HTS are complex ceramics and practical conductors need to be highly engineered.  This makes them currently significantly more expensive than copper or LTS, although the price gap is expected to close as production volumes increase.”

How do New Zealand and HTS fit together?

“The NZ industry is recognized as world leading in HTS technologies, and this is reflected in it sitting as an equal with Japan, Europe and the US in ISIS.  New Zealand’s position initially stemmed from the discovery by a team at DSIR (later Industrial Research Ltd) in the late 1980s of the material that was to become the first to be exploited as HTS wire.  Since then NZ researchers (and over the last decade, NZ companies) have maintained work on wire development and built on this foundation so New Zealand is now selling and developing a range of products based on HTS.

“In 2004, HTS-110 Ltd was formed to manufacture and sell HTS based magnet systems.   After little more than five years HTS-110 is now bringing to market HTS nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR).  NMR is one of the more complex magnet based analytic technologies and HTS-110 is the first to market internationally with such a product.”

Donald Pooke, CEO of HTS-110(2) says:

“”When compared with LTS NMR our HTS NMR magnets are smaller, much more robust, they can be turned off (most LTS NMR is always on), can be easily cooled by mechanical coolers, don’t need liquid helium and are much less sensitive to environmental factors such as vibration etc.  This means NMR can be taken out of specialist suites and moved into the laboratory and into industry.  We think this will represent a step change in the use of NMR by introducing a whole new large group of users to this analytic technique.”

“Building on HTS-110’s NMR capability IRL is working with HTS-110 on developing small volume HTS MRI.  This holds the promise of using MRI much more extensively in industry (e.g. for product inspection) and medical centres and clinics (e.g. for imaging joints).

“These HTS NMR and MRI products won’t compete directly with their LTS equivalents, for example we don’t envisage an HTS whole-body MRI machine in the near future because of the high cost of HTS wire, but as noted the technology  will open up the use of NMR and MRI in a much wider range of environments.”

How close are we to being able to employ high temperature superconductor technology in power generation and transmission, and what kind of efficiency and environmental gains can this be expected to result in?

“New Zealand is also addressing the use of HTS in power systems equipment.

“Internationally there are commercial projects involving HTS transmission cable but wider uptake will take time, perhaps 5+ years.  Part of this delay is simply reducing the higher cost of the HTS wire and demonstrating HTS based equipment (copper is a very mature technology).

“An added factor is that superconducting wires don’t conduct AC completely without resistance.  Power systems are basically AC and, despite the heat generated being low, it is made more significant because pumping heat from cryogenic temperature to room temperature faces a >30X penalty.

“So both robust efficient industrial cooling (deployable in a substation for example) and reducing AC losses are key technologies to aid the uptake of HTS in power systems, and neither has a satisfactory solution.”

Bob Buckley, HTS Group Manager at Industrial Research Ltd (and one of the original team at DSIR involved in the initial discoveries of HTS) says:

“”We recognized these problems and began working on both 3 to 4 years ago. Right now we think in NZ we’re well on the way to at least part of the solution to both problems.

“”First we are developing a pretty clever mechanical cooler that is designed to be cheap, industrially robust and suitable for use with power systems equipment.  There’s a competitive market out there trying to solve this problem, but HTS-110 has picked up the commercialization and they’ve cut a deal with Air Liquide around development and distribution for our technology, so we think we’re on the right track.  We are also finding other applications for the cooler outside HTS.

“”Second we’ve developed an HTS cable that reduces AC losses and allows the high current carrying capacity required in power system equipment.  This is not a transmission cable (they can be wound from HTS wire in a way that reduces AC losses) but a cable for use in winding the large coils used in motors, generators, transformers and the like.  This cable (referred to as Roebel Cable³) is being manufactured in long-lengths by a joint venture between IRL and General Cable Ltd (General Cable Superconductors Ltd). This involves a complex manufacturing process because the ceramic HTS wire needs to be cut in a complex pattern and wound into a cable without twisting. General Cable Superconductors LtdGCS is the only company in the world manufacturing the cable.

“”GCS and IRL are working with a range of partners on projects to demonstrate the utility of the cable in power systems equipment, including a group of New Zealand companies that are developing a HTS transformer using it and Siemens in Germany who is using it in a large HTS utility generator they are developing.””

How will HTS be applied to the electronics industry?

“HTS electronics are being pursued internationally, but not in NZ.”

Additional notes:

¹ Alan Lauder is also President of Alan Lauder Inc., Chairman and CEO of Advanced Microwave Applications Corp. Amongst other things, he was formerly chairman of the U.S. trade association for superconductivity (CSAC), and managed the superconductivity programme at DuPont.

² ISIS has as its members:

• The International Superconductivity Technology Center (ISTEC), Japan;
• The Coalition for the Commercial Applications of Superconductivity  (CCAS), US;
• The Consortium of European Companies Determined to Use Superconductivity (Conectus) Europe, and
• The NZ High Temperature Superconductor Industry Association (NZ-HTSIA)

The Koreans and Chinese are observers and are expected to join ISIS in the near future.  Many of the large scientific, medical and industrial equipment multinationals feature as members of the individual associations, along with national applied research laboratories.

³ Roebel cable winding is a method of winding HTS cable in an efficient and cost-effective manner.  The technique was developed  by IRL researchers and will allow the faster uptake of the technology.

Further Information

To talk to any of the experts quoted above contact the Science Media Centre on tel: 04 499 5476 or email: smc@sciencemediacentre.co.nz.

Notes to Editors

The Science Media Centre (SMC) is an independent source of expert comment and information for journalists covering science and technology in New Zealand. Our aim is to promote accurate, bias-free reporting on science and technology by helping the media work more closely with the scientific community. The SMC is an independent centre established by the Royal Society of New Zealand with funding from the Ministry of Research, Science and Technology. The views expressed in this Science Alert are those of the individuals and organisations indicated and do not reflect the views of the SMC or its employees. For further information about the centre, or to offer feedback, please email us at smc@sciencemediacentre.co.nz.

A new study published in the New England Journal of Medicine this month has prompted calls in Europe for EU-wide salt legislation.

In the NEJM paper, the authors undertook a computer simulation showing the effects of population-wide reductions in dietary salt intakes among adults aged 35 to 85 years living in the USA.

They claim that: “a reduction in dietary salt of 3g per day would have approximately the same effect on rates of coronary heart disease (CHD) events as a 50% reduction in tobacco use, a 5% reduction in body mass index among obese adults, or the use of statins to treat persons at low or intermediate risk for CHD events.”

The authors go on to say, “a population-wide reduction of salt intake of 3g per day is expected to result in the same reduction in death rates as the use of medical treatment to control hypertension in all persons with this condition”.

With this week being World Salt Awareness Week, the research adds further impetus to the need for people to substantially reduce (in New Zealand, by some 33%) their salt intake.

We asked nutrition experts what the implications are for New Zealanders, and what public health advice they would give, based on this new research.

Amanda Brien, a public health nutritionist with Taranaki District Health Board, comments:

“Salt is the main source of sodium in our diets. Too much sodium is linked to high blood pressure, heart disease and stroke. The Ministry of Health recommends we eat no more than 6.0g salt per day, which is a bit more than one teaspoon. Currently, New Zealanders are having nearly double this amount at 9.0g per day.

“Taking the salt off the dinner table is a good start to reducing your daily intake, but the majority of salt in our diets comes from processed foods. Salt is used as a preservative and flavour in a range of foods such as, takeaways, bread, biscuits, chips, sauces, cheese, meat and pickled vegetables.

“Already some manufacturers are reducing the amount of sodium in their products through initiatives like the National Heart Foundation’s Pick the Tick or by offering low-salt options. Learn to read food labels and look for products with less than 450mg of sodium per 100g. You will be surprised with the differences between brands. For example, cracker biscuits can range from about 200mg to a whopping 1600mg of sodium per 100g!

“Start to lower the amount of salt you use at home in cooking. Taking a little bit out each day adds up over time and helps reduce risk of heart disease. Get creative in the kitchen and use other flavours like lemon, herbs or spices to liven up meals.”

Amy Liu, a registered dietitian and nutrition consultant, comments:

“Processed food provides the majority of our salt intake, contributing up to 85% to total intakes.

“A new U.S. study, published in the New England Journal of Medicine this month, reported that reducing dietary salt by up to 3g per day is projected to reduce the annual number of new cases of CHD by 60,000-120,000; stroke by 32,000-66,000; and myocardial infarction by 54,000-99,000. The study also reports that the annual number of deaths by any cause would be reduced by 44,000-92,000. In addition, $10 -24 billion (USD) in health costs would be saved per year. Even a modest reduction of 1g per day would be more cost effective than using medication to lower blood pressure.

“These results are in alignment with the findings from a randomised controlled feeding trial called DASH (Dietary Approach to Stop Hypertension). Along with reducing salt intake, the DASH eating plan involved consuming foods that were low in total fat, saturated fatty acids and cholesterol and included plenty of fruits, vegetables and low-fat dairy products. Also included were wholegrain products, fish, poultry and nuts.

“My advice to New Zealanders who wish to reduce their blood pressure is to cut down on salty foods and avoid adding salt in cooking and at the table. Also, follow a healthy diet that includes lots of fruits and vegetables, wholegrain cereals, low-fat dairy products, fish, poultry and nuts.”

Mary Rose Spence, a registered dietitian and nutrition consultant, comments:

“We have acknowledged in New Zealand for a number of years that a high salt (sodium) intake is linked to high blood pressure, and this is a risk factor for heart disease and strokes.

“In New Zealand, the daily intake of salt (sodium) for adults is approximately 9g/day.The Heart Foundation in NZ recommends an intake of 6g/day. The Report of the Nutrition Taskforce 1991 put out by the Dept of Health suggested an intake of 7g/day or less by the year 2000. We are still significantly above these targets.

“Most of the sodium consumed (approx 85%) comes from processed and manufactured foods. Only about 15% comes from salt we add from the shaker or in cooking.

“Some New Zealand food companies are already engaged in salt reduction – either through their own initiatives or in collaboration with the Heart Foundation. The Heart Foundations Pick the tick programme aims to reduce levels of salt in commonly eaten foods. In one year 33 tonnes of salt was removed from the food supply by encouraging manufacturers to reduce salt contents so they were eligible for the Heart Tick.

“The foods that typically have high sodium levels are bread, butter, cheese, some breakfast cereals, sauces, take-away foods, canned foods and processed meats. The salt levels of breads are currently being reduced and as a result of this project, up to 150 tonnes of salt will be removed annually from the New Zealand bread supply.

“It is important we have easily understood information, to allow consumers to make informed choices when there is such a vast range of products such as breads and cereals available.

We need to keep encouraging our food manufacturers to gradually reduce the salt content of processed foods and assist our population in identifying salt in products and making informed choices when shopping.”

Namalie Jayasinya, Business Manager of Food Reformulation at the Heart Foundation, comments:

“High salt intake is strongly linked to raised blood pressure, a major risk factor for heart disease. High blood pressure is in fact the leading global risk factor for mortality – outranking tobacco use, physical inactivity, blood cholesterol, obesity and overweight. At least one in seven adults in New Zealand takes medication for high blood pressure.

“New Zealanders’ intake of salt is estimated at around 9g/day. This is 50% higher than the maximum recommended intake of 6g/day. Bread is the main source of sodium in the diet of New Zealanders, contributing 26% of our sodium intake. Other major sources of sodium include processed meat (10%), breakfast cereals (6%) and sauces (6%). Some categories have made a significant effort to reduce salt levels since the survey that collected these statistics.

How should we reduce these salt intakes?

“Increasing consumer awareness of the need to reduce salt intakes, consumers reading food labels, consumers demanding low/er salt options and manufacturers reducing salt in the foods they produce are the most obvious ways to reduce salt intake across the population.

Should we be calling for manufacturers to reduce salt in processed food?

“In 1997 three quarters of our salt intake came from manufactured foods. Many large and small food manufacturers are already doing great work in this area to incrementally reduce salt levels allowing people’s taste preferences to adjust. We are currently working collaboratively with key members of the food industry to map out and agree on a way to achieve further reductions in areas where there is room for improvement. This has already been successfully achieved in the majority of breads sold in New Zealand.”

Further Information

To talk to any of the experts quoted above contact the Science Media Centre on tel: 04 499 5476 or email: smc@sciencemediacentre.co.nz.

Notes to Editors

The Science Media Centre (SMC) is an independent source of expert comment and information for journalists covering science and technology in New Zealand. Our aim is to promote accurate, bias-free reporting on science and technology by helping the media work more closely with the scientific community. The SMC is an independent centre established by the Royal Society of New Zealand with funding from the Ministry of Research, Science and Technology. The views expressed in this Science Alert are those of the individuals and organisations indicated and do not reflect the views of the SMC or its employees. For further information about the centre, or to offer feedback, please email us at smc@sciencemediacentre.co.nz.